Brand USA doubles down on Canada as sentiment shifts amid political tensions

Brand USA is preparing a renewed marketing push in Canada as the destination marketing organization works to rebuild momentum in one of its most important international markets, even as Canadian traveller sentiment toward the United States remains under pressure.

The plans were outlined Thursday (July 23) during Brand USA's Board of Directors meeting, broadcasted via Zoom, where executives devoted considerable attention to international traveller sentiment and the factors influencing demand ahead of major events, including the FIFA World Cup in 2026 and America's 250th anniversary celebrations.

Canada featured prominently in the discussion.

While Brand USA acknowledged that Canadian travel demand has softened since early 2025 amid U.S. President Donald Trump's tariff policies and repeated "51st state" rhetoric, the organization said research suggests the U.S. remains firmly on Canadians' travel radar.

New campaign coming this fall

Brand USA confirmed it will launch a new consumer marketing campaign for Canada this fall, marking its return with a full brand message after largely maintaining trade and public relations activity over the past year.

The targeted digital campaign will focus on younger Canadian travellers whose online behaviour indicates an openness to visiting the U.S. The organization says this has been informed by quantitative research and consumer focus groups.

READ MORE: Younger travellers are fuelling Canadian visits to the U.S. – DAC presents latest outlook

The campaign will also offer destination partners integration opportunities similar to those available through Brand USA's "America the Beautiful" initiative.

Travel Week expands Canadian presence

The organization also shared that its existing Canada Connect conference will expand into Brand USA Travel Week Canada, taking place Oct. 26-29 in Toronto and Montreal.

As previously reported, the event will bring together U.S. destinations with Canadian travel advisors, trade partners and media in an effort to strengthen relationships in the market.

Canada forecast revised downward

The renewed investment comes as Canada experienced the largest forecast downgrade of any international market in Tourism Economics' July 2026 update.

The latest forecast reduced expected Canadian arrivals by 300,000 visitors compared with projections released in March.

READ MORE: Brand USA to bring flagship travel event to Canada for first time

Even so, Canada remains the United States' second-largest inbound international market after Mexico and is still expected to post year-over-year growth.

Tourism Economics now forecasts 16.7 million Canadian arrivals in 2026, representing a four per cent increase over 2025.

Canadians still choosing the U.S.

Brand USA also shared findings from its latest traveller sentiment research, which painted a more nuanced picture of Canadian demand.

Canada was one of just three markets surveyed — alongside Brazil and Mexico — where respondents identified the United States as the single most likely destination for their next international trip.

The broader global research showed traveller perceptions of the U.S. have improved during 2026.

According to Brand USA, July sentiment tracking reached its highest level of favourable impressions this year, with notable gains across the United Kingdom, Europe and Asia, particularly Germany.

“More welcoming than headlines often portray”

Speaking at the meeting, Brand USA President and CEO Fred Dixon said media attention surrounding the FIFA World Cup and America's upcoming 250th anniversary has been unprecedented, creating an opportunity to reshape perceptions.

"In fact, I think it's a true inflection point to remind people of all the incredible experiences the U.S. has to offer. As we often say, the truth is far more welcoming than headlines often portray," Dixon said.

Officials from the U.S. Department of Commerce echoed that message, saying visitors' experiences during World Cup-related travel demonstrated that the lasting impression came not from the matches themselves but from how welcomed travellers felt once they arrived.

They also credited Brand USA's "Get Facts, Get Going" platform with helping reduce uncertainty and encouraging international travel ahead of the tournament.

Campaign performance data presented at the meeting suggested those efforts are resonating.

Across paid media markets, Brand USA reported 83 per cent favourability toward the U.S., while video advertising generated a positive influence on travel interest among 76 per cent of viewers — the highest level recorded in eight months.

People exposed to the campaign were also significantly more likely to say they intended to visit the U.S., producing a 28-point visitation lift compared with those who had not seen the advertising.

Competition intensifying

Despite the encouraging signs, Brand USA acknowledged the U.S. is facing increased competition globally.

Research presented to the board showed the country's advantage over other leading international destinations has narrowed.

Unlike broader global travel trends — where cost remains the dominant obstacle to international travel — barriers specific to visiting the U.S. are more evenly divided among travel costs, political concerns and travellers choosing to visit other destinations first.

The softer outlook is reflected in Tourism Economics' latest forecast, which lowered expected international arrivals to the United States in 2026 to 69.9 million, reducing projected annual growth from 3.4 per cent to 2.4 per cent.

Even with the revision, Brand USA said the long-term outlook remains positive, with international arrivals projected to reach 85 million annually by 2030.

Canadians spent $3.3B less on U.S. travel in 2025

The updates come as Statistics Canada releases its latest transborder tourism data on Wednesday.

The agency reports that Canadians spent $3.3 billion less on travel to the United States in 2025 as political tensions and the "Buy Canadian" movement prompted many residents to look elsewhere.

Figures show that Canadians significantly reduced leisure travel to the U.S. last year, with outbound leisure trips south of the border falling 21.5 per cent, or 3.2 million visits.
At the same time, travel to overseas destinations climbed 12.2 per cent, representing an increase of 1.1 million trips.

Travel to visit family and friends in the U.S. also declined nine per cent during the year.

Overall, Canadians spent $18.8 billion on travel to the U.S. in 2025, while spending on overseas travel reached $81.3 billion.

StatCan also noted that signs of a recovery began to emerge this spring.

As previously reported, in April, return trips by Canadian residents from the U.S. increased 1.8 per cent year over year — the first annual increase since travel demand softened in early 2025.

READ MORE: Will Trump's 50% tariff threat stall Canada's return to U.S. travel? Industry pros weigh in

The rebound was largely driven by cross-border automobile travel. Return trips by car rose 8.1 per cent, with roughly 65 per cent of those being same-day visits.

The changing travel patterns were also reflected in Canada's aviation sector.

Passenger traffic on flights between Canada and the U.S. declined 7.9 per cent year over year to 29.4 million travellers in 2025.

Meanwhile, Canadian airports recorded stronger demand for domestic travel, which increased 2.9 per cent, while international travel to destinations outside the U.S. rose 5.1 per cent.

StatCan said several airlines responded by cancelling transborder routes and introducing new services to other international destinations.

Trade war intensifies

Meanwhile, the U.S. government announced this week plans to impose new 50 per cent tariffs on a wide range of goods from Canada.

The sweeping measures are expected to trigger renewed economic uncertainty, raise inflation concerns and further strain relations between the two countries, which have long maintained one of the world's closest trading partnerships.

That uncertainty extends to cross-border tourism.

Earlier this week, PAX asked several Canadian travel advisors and industry executives whether Trump's latest round of tariffs could stall the recovery in Canada-U.S. travel and lead some Canadians, who had only recently begun returning to the U.S., to rethink their travel plans.

Most agreed that the current situation will slow the recent rebound. 

“When Canadians feel like they're being targeted economically, it inevitably influences how they think about spending their vacation dollars south of the border, especially for leisure travellers who have other options," said Zeina Gedeon, COO of Trevello World Holdings and CEO of Trevello Canada.

Gregory Luciani, president and CEO of TravelOnly, added that "the rhetoric and escalating trade war will influence consumer sentiment and travel decisions, which will ultimately hurt the Canadian economy."

Travel advisor Jakki Prince, chief epic officer and owner of Prince Adventures, noted that political commentary has repeatedly shown to motivate Canadians back into the “elbows up” camp, and keep them spending tourism dollars at home or elsewhere abroad. 

“I have no doubt some people will again rethink travel to the USA given the latest comments [by Trump],” Prince said.

Meanwhile, P.E.I-based Brett Tabor of Revolution Travel, an affiliate of The Travel Agent Next Door, called on the industry to "stay engaged" with its U.S. partners.

“We can play an important role in staying connected with our neighbours," he said, adding that "the troubles won’t last forever," urging colleagues to remain optimistic. 

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