Will Trump's 50% tariff threat stall Canada's return to U.S. travel? Industry pros weigh in

U.S. President Donald Trump signed three proclamations Monday (July 20) that will impose 50 per cent tariffs on many Canadian goods, reports say.

The move is said to be retaliation for what the White House calls "unequal treatment" of American-made vehicles, alcohol and dairy products.

The new duties will apply to a broad range of Canadian exports, including wine, hockey sticks and cement, and will also cover products previously protected under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA/USMCA).

The sweeping measures are also expected to trigger renewed economic uncertainty, raise inflation concerns and further strain relations between the two countries, which have long maintained one of the world's closest trading partnerships.

That uncertainty equally applies to cross-border tourism.

As it has been well documented, Canadian visitation to the United States, since early 2025, has dropped considerably amid trade tensions between Canada and the United States and Trump's repeated comments about making Canada the "51st state."

Canadian tourism to the United States has dropped roughly 29 per cent overall compared to “pre-boycott” levels.

READ MORE: Signs of a shift? StatCan data suggests Canadians may be warming up to U.S. travel

However, recent Statistics Canada data has pointed to early signs of a gradual recovery.

A first sign that “elbows” were gradually going down first emerged in April, when Statistics Canada reported a 1.8 per cent year-over-year increase in Canadian residents returning from trips to the U.S.

Then, this past June, Canadian residents made 1.7 million return trips from the U.S., marking a 3.2 per cent increase compared to June 2025.

Return trips by car for that month rose 5.2 per cent year over year, while return trips by air declined 3.8 per cent.

Could Trump’s latest round of tariff threats derail this emerging recovery in Canada-U.S. travel and prompt Canadians, who had begun returning to the U.S., to reconsider their plans?

PAX asked several travel industry experts for their take.

World Cup trumps politics?

Ontario-based travel advisor Jakki Prince, chief epic officer and owner of Prince Adventures, believes the recent FIFA World Cup tournament likely led Canadians to “bend on their flexibility” to travel to the United States.

“Canada's success, playing two knockout games in the USA, meant thousands of Canadians, potentially many of whom who would have avoided going to the States altogether, were motivated to travel to Los Angeles and Houston to support the men's national team,” Prince told PAX Tuesday morning (July 21).

READ MORE: Younger travellers are fuelling Canadian visits to the U.S. – DAC presents latest outlook

Likewise, summer is a time when Canadian families “look for affordable travel options,” and the U.S. has “long been a place Canadians drive to, especially in the face of steep international airfares,” Prince noted.

Political commentary, however, has repeatedly shown to motivate Canadians back into the “elbows up” camp, and keep them spending tourism dollars at home or elsewhere abroad, she added.

“I have no doubt some people will again rethink travel to the USA given the latest comments [by Trump],” Prince said.

Additionally: “I hope all Canadians consider planning their vacation with the use of a local travel advisor, helping navigate their options and taking advantage of their informed recommendations,” she added.

Ontario’s Shalene Dudley, CEO of Latitude Concierge Travels, shared a similar sentiment.

“I think that anytime [Trump] opens his mouth to speak about Canada, it causes some negative effect to consumers who may take more time to consider where they prefer to spend their hard earned Canadian dollars,” Dudley said.

Dudley said her cruise clients, in the end, will continue to fly to the U.S. for their travels.

“But many first-timers are reconsidering and choosing European and Canadian ports,” she said.

Looking elsewhere

From what Nova Scotia-based travel advisor Kim Hartlen is seeing, interest in travelling to the U.S. “has already dropped significantly.”

“Many Canadians are choosing other destinations because of rising costs and uncertainty around the current political and trade climate,” Hartlen, owner of Kim Hartlen Travel-Trevello, told PAX on Tuesday.

“I believe these new tariffs will only continue that trend, as travellers look for better value and a more positive overall experience elsewhere.”

The new reality?

Zeina Gedeon, COO of Trevello World Holdings and CEO of Trevello Canada, has been encouraged by the recent uptick in Canadian travel to the U.S.

“Since October, it feels like confidence was returning,” she told PAX.

However, Trump’s recent tariff actions will “definitely make travellers pause.”

“Trade friction and cross-border travel don't operate in separate silos,” she said. “When Canadians feel like they're being targeted economically, it inevitably influences how they think about spending their vacation dollars south of the border, especially for leisure travellers who have other options.”

“We are hoping that this does not become a lasting shift! Or will this become our reality?”

"Uncertainty is never good for consumer confidence"

Gregory Luciani, president and CEO of TravelOnly, believes if the latest round of tariffs moves forward, "I do think they’ll create more uncertainty and could slow the recent rebound in Canadian travel to the U.S." 

"We’ve already seen many Canadians reconsider U.S. vacations over the past several months and another escalation in trade tensions may reinforce that hesitation," Luciani told PAX.  "Uncertainty is never good for consumer confidence." 

"More broadly I believe Canada needs to stand firm. President Trump has repeatedly spoken about fundamentally changing the Canada/U.S. relationship and many Canadians take those comments seriously. Whether or not tariffs are ultimately implemented, the rhetoric and escalating trade war will influence consumer sentiment and travel decisions which will ultimately hurt the Canadian economy." 

“Let’s stay optimistic”

P.E.I-based Brett Tabor of Revolution Travel, an affiliate of The Travel Agent Next Door, suspects agent opinions and consumer sentiment will vary from region to region.

“For my colleagues and clients in Ontario, they feel the very real damage being inflicted on our auto industry. For Atlantic Canada, we know we traditionally lag the rest of the country economically, but our farms are benefiting from ‘Buy Canadian,’ our regional unemployment rates are near historical lows, and Nova Scotia and New Brunswick are benefitting from $3 billion in defence investments,” said Tabor.

“We may not be booming, but I feel we’re doing OK. Demand for travel remains strong, and travellers in our region are eager to take advantage of new air routes, like WestJet’s new services from Halifax to Europe, Air Canada’s upcoming direct service to Barbados, et cetera.”

That said, Tabor doesn’t believe anti-American sentiment is good for industry, “or good for our country in the long-term.”

“As agents, we should stay engaged with our U.S. partners, keep learning and keep travelling,” he said. “Show travellers what they’re missing out on.”

Tabor recently participated in a Brand USA/Visit Utah FAM, for example.

“The destination was beautiful, the people were friendly,” he said. “We can play an important role in staying connected with our neighbours.”

“The troubles won’t last forever. Let’s stay optimistic.”

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