Younger travellers are fuelling Canadian visits to the U.S. – DAC presents latest outlook

Discover America Canada welcomed just over 40 members to a virtual event on Thursday (May 28) for a Canadian outbound travel update from Jennifer Hendry, senior research associate at Signal49 Research (formerly The Conference Board of Canada).

Before diving into the data, Hendry noted, "I've been analyzing travel data for 25 years and a lot has changed over that time. But one thing remains the same – tourism's ability to endure. Canadians have a deep and lasting passion for travel. And that makes the sector very resilient."

As the research was presented, it showed the landscape for Canadian outbound travel has shifted, or what Hendry called a "transfer of demand." Canadians are still travelling in record numbers, but the U.S. is no longer the automatic first choice it once was.

“The shift is real”

Canadians made 30 million outbound overnight trips down nine per cent from the year prior but that decline was felt almost entirely in the transborder market. 

U.S. trips dropped 21 per cent while overseas travel grew 10 per cent. As Hendry put it, "the transborder market lost market share."

Overseas trips jumped from 39 per cent of total outbound travel in 2024 to 47 per cent in 2025. 

For the first time on record, more Canadians travelled overseas in a single month than to the U.S., a milestone that says a lot about how much the market has shifted. "The shift is real," Hendry said. "And it's significant."

From the data presented, the drivers are a mix of exchange rates, geopolitics, and more destination options and access. In 2025, there were nearly 14.1 million outbound trips to non-U.S. destinations.

Europe and the UK reported a 4.1 per cent increase, with emerging destinations like Cyprus, Norway, and Finland recording the largest percentage increases. Asia Pacific grew 11 per cent, with Japan, the Philippines, and Hong Kong leading the way.

Latin America recorded a 2.3 per cent increase. Mexico was up 11 per cent and South and Central America grew 4 per cent, with Costa Rica, Belize, Colombia, Brazil, Ecuador, and Panama all benefiting as Canadians looked for sunny options during the winter months.

The Caribbean overall was down 5 per cent, with Cuba declining 12 per cent and Jamaica down 17 per cent, which are declines Hendry attributed to the absence of flights to Cuba until November and the hurricane impact in Jamaica.

Despite the declines, the research shows the U.S. is far from being written off by Canadian travellers. 

"The U.S. still saw 16 million overnight trips from Canada last year. It's still a very highly visible and accessible destination. But its standing among other choices has weakened, and Canadians are more discerning than ever,” shared Hendry.

In Q1 2026, transborder trips were down another 14 per cent compared to the same period last year, with auto travel down 18 per cent and non-auto trips down 12 per cent.

Hendry cautioned that much of 2025's decline didn't kick in until mid-year, so month-over-month comparisons can be misleading. "Look to 2024 for the actual performance indicator," she advised.

Summer U.S. travel intentions

Looking ahead to summer, 70 per cent of Canadians plan to take a leisure trip, which is a modest increase from 2025. 

According to Hendry, 30 per cent of those planning an outbound trip intend to visit the U.S., which is up slightly from last summer, but still well below normal.

"The survey would normally see about half of all outbound travellers destined for the U.S.," she noted. "So, we're still seeing a lower share."

Florida, California, and New York remain the top three U.S. destinations, though Florida's share has declined while New York and California have held steady or grown.

Arizona and Alaska are new additions to the top five this summer, and there is one encouraging sign for U.S.-bound suppliers: 40 per cent of those planning a U.S. trip intend to fly directly, which according to Hendry, is a larger share than in previous years suggesting the air market is outperforming auto travel and that direct flight capacity is doing its job.

Travellers are also more likely to book hotels and resorts rather than private rentals, which Hendry reported is likely tied to reduced Airbnb availability in many markets.

Which Canadians are U.S. bound?

According to the data, the profile of the U.S.-bound Canadian traveller has also shifted. 

More young Canadians are heading to the U.S. this summer, and 42 per cent of those planning a U.S. trip are between 18 and 34, compared to just 29 per cent last year.

Hendry indicated this group is motivated less by geopolitics and more by experience, events, and accessibility. The research also showed that sentiment toward U.S. travel is also gradually improving. A year ago, 69 per cent of Canadians said they were less likely to cross the border.

That figure has now come down to 63 per cent, which Hendry said is “still significant” and moving in the right direction. The forecast for the next two to three years points to continued strength in overseas travel, particularly to Asia Pacific and Europe, while U.S. demand remains soft but stable.

"Trip volume is expected to be similar to last year, but remain well below the level seen in 2024," Hendry said. The transborder air market is expected to continue outperforming auto travel, though any reduction in capacity could shift where travellers ultimately choose to go.

"Canadians are highly motivated and adaptable travellers and remain one of the largest and closest markets to the United States. So, that market will continue to travel there and will recover. It just won't be in the short term,” said Hendry.

Upcoming Discover America Canada events 

Susan Webb, president of Discover America Canada, also updated members on what's ahead for Discover America Canada. 

An in-person event is planned for the week of July 21 at the U.S. Consul General's residence in Toronto, hosted by Consul General Baxter Hunt (date to be confirmed shortly).

Discover America Canada's annual Media Day on October 28 is being integrated this year with Brand USA's Canada Connect events, taking place at One King West in Toronto.

The multi-day format gives U.S. exhibitors and suppliers a full program: panel discussions and industry updates on the Monday, one-on-one meetings with Canadian tour operators, buyers, and group agencies on the Tuesday, and then Discover America Canada's signature Media Day with one-on-one press appointments and a keynote luncheon on the Wednesday. Brand USA then moves on to Montreal for a combined media and travel trade event.

Members who are participating in Brand USA Canada Connect can opt into the Media Day as well, giving suppliers flexibility to engage with both the travel trade and media in a single trip to Toronto.

"We've got some great ideas already for keynote speakers for our day," said Webb. "Looking forward to seeing a lot of you exhibit and our great media to come and be partners with us."

Rounding out the year, the Discover America Canada holiday reception is confirmed for December 3 at the Radisson Blu in Toronto. 

Webb shared that full registration details for all upcoming events will be communicated to members shortly.

For more information on Discover America Canada, visit here.

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