Canadian travel to the U.S.: DAC panel unpacks sentiment, setbacks & signs of recovery

Despite nine straight months of declines in Canadian travel to the United States, experts say it’s not all doom and gloom for the cross-border travel market.

At a webinar hosted by Discover America Canada (DAC) on Wednesday (Oct. 15), industry leaders shared insights, data, and forecasts suggesting that while travel sentiment has shifted, opportunities for recovery and growth are emerging.

Moderated by Colin Wood, an account director at VoX International, the panel brought together an all-star lineup of bold-faced names: Stephen Fine, president and founder of Snowbird Advisor; Michelle Tupman, general manager, Great Canadian Holidays, a coach tour operator; Jackie Ennis, vice president, global trade development at Brand USA; Raina Williams, senior regional manager for Canada at Expedia Group; Jennifer Hendry, senior research associate at the Conference Board of Canada; and Viktor Spysak, manager, sales and tourism partnerships at Air Canada.

The conversation painted a picture of a complex marketplace — one where Canadians are still eager to travel, but their choices and motivations are rapidly evolving.

Outbound travel strong, but U.S. trips slide

“We Canadians are a very savvy travel market, and we are still exploring the world,” said Hendry, kicking off the virtual meeting. “The outbound travel market is actually doing pretty well.”

However, Hendry noted a significant shift: Canadian travel sentiment toward the U.S. “shifted earlier this year,” and the data tells a clear story. “As of September, we had nine months of consecutive declines in land travel to the U.S. We’re down 745,000 fewer land visitors.”

According to Hendry, that drop — down 32 per cent year over year — is widespread across every border province, a scenario not seen since COVID-era closures. Air travel, meanwhile, has fared somewhat better, falling around 20 per cent.

As it has been well documented, sentiment toward the U.S. has been undermined by several factors.

Prominent among these are policy announcements under the Trump administration, including proposed tariffs targeting long-time trade partners, including Canada, and the President’s annexation threats.

READ MORE: Cross-border travel to U.S. from Canada weakened in September: StatCan

The weak Canadian dollar and media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories have further contributed to a negative image abroad.

As a result, transborder trips from Canada are down, but overseas travel is booming: “Trips to non-U.S. destinations are up nine per cent year over year,” Hendry said, adding that such trips now make up 47 per cent of all outbound activity, up from 39 per cent last year and in 2019.

“Yes, there’s been an abrupt and steep decline in transborder activity,” Hendry said, “but the overall outbound market is still travelling.”

Brand USA’s cautious optimism 

From Brand USA, the United States’ destination marketing organization, Jackie Ennis acknowledged the decline, but offered some perspective.

“The forecast [for Canadians travelling to the U.S.] was that it would be down about 20 per cent overall for 2025,” she said. “Up until July, we were 17 per cent down, below what was forecasted, which was positive. For July and August, we were 20 to 21 per cent down, which hit us quite badly.”

Ennis noted that the downturn coincided with the summer months — “fantastic months to be in Canada,” she said — which may have driven more domestic travel.

“We know there’s been a real push for Canadians to travel within their own country,” she said.  “It’s a beautiful country, so why wouldn’t they?”

Despite the slump, Ennis remains positive: “Even with a 20 per cent decline, that’s still 16 million [Canadians] travelling to the U.S. Those travellers that have come to the U.S. over the last several months, I think they felt very welcomed by the places they visited…Canada is still a vitally important market to inbound travel into the United States.”

READ MORE: U.S. inbound travel continues to decline amid shifting sentiment

She confirmed that Mexico has overtaken Canada as the largest international inbound market to the U.S., largely due to Canada’s decline.

But she highlighted signs of stabilization and recovery. “We’re hoping that the land number will steadily increase as we get into those colder fall and winter months,” she said.

Expedia: U.S. searches down, but Canadians still dreaming

From her vantage point at Expedia Group, Raina Williams said the U.S. “is softening” in search demand. “We’re seeing year-over-year declines in both air and hotel searches,” she noted, “but greater declines in hotel search versus air.”

At the same time, domestic travel within Canada “continues to show sustained growth,” with international destinations outside the U.S. surging in both air and hotel searches.

“Our data shows that those who are looking at the U.S. are also looking at Mexico, the Dominican Republic and Italy,” Williams said.

That competitive set, she said, holds lessons for U.S. destinations trying to win back Canadians: “It’s really important that we pay closer attention to why people are travelling to those destinations — and how we can start to turn that around for the U.S.”

Motorcoach market: “We’ve lost 95% of travel into the U.S.”

Few operators have felt the chill in sentiment more sharply than Kitchener, ON-based Great Canadian Holidays, whose business relies heavily on cross-border coach tours from southern Ontario, mainly from seniors.  

“Historically, about 45 per cent of our business was to the U.S.,” said Michelle Tupman, “and it’s dropped off almost completely.”

Since January this year, “we’ve lost at least 95 per cent of our travel into the U.S.,” she said.

The company has pivoted to Canadian itineraries and even some overseas options, but the shift has been challenging.

“Our clients aren't looking to see us advertising American destinations, we’re met with pretty swift backlash when we do so,” Tupman shared. “The demand for us is domestic — and that really hasn’t changed yet. We see the odd U.S. tour materialize with numbers that break even, but it isn’t shifting yet.”

Air Canada: U.S. demand down, but routes expanding

“Like for many, the demand for U.S. travel is down this year,” said Viktor Spysak of Air Canada. “Every airline has had to adjust capacity…but the decrease was not dramatic — it met existing demand.”

Leisure markets, he said, are actually outperforming other segments, despite an overall 17 per cent reduction in leisure seat capacity.

“That’s actually driving recovery,” Spysak explained, “because we’re now seeing stronger demand on those leisure destinations.”

One key trend? Shorter booking windows. “Travellers are making last-minute decisions, maybe weekend trips. The length of stay might be shorter, too, due to costs,” he said.

Still, Air Canada is betting on a U.S. recovery. “We recently announced three new U.S. destinations for next summer — Columbus, Cleveland and San Antonio. Summer seasonal routes,” Spysak said. “So even in this environment of uncertainty, we’re seeing positive signs.”

Spysak also pointed out that Air Canada’s recovery is supported by the fact that the airline carries passengers from other parts of the world that are travelling to the U.S. via Canada.

“That helps us sustain our numbers,” he said.

Snowbirds: “All over the map” on U.S. travel

For Stephen Fine at Snowbird Advisor, the million-strong snowbird segment offers unique insight into long-stay travel behavior.

“There’s about an 80/20 split in terms of snowbirds who go to the U.S. versus international markets,” he explained. “And this year, it’s really a mixed bag.”

Some snowbirds, he said, “are adamant they won’t go to the U.S. in the current environment, others are reluctantly going back, and others are enthusiastically returning.”

Much of the uncertainty stems from geopolitical conflict. “All these factors — tariffs, rhetoric, new entry requirements — happened at the end of last season,” Fine said. “So this year will be our first real test.”

Still, Fine pointed out that snowbirds are deeply tied to the U.S.

“Seventy percent drive to their destination, and 30 per cent own properties in the U.S.,” he said. “That means they’re more likely to return — and many are planning to.”

Many snowbirds also have communities and friends they visit during the winter.

“It's a lifestyle as opposed to a vacation or getaway, which is very different from the general population,” he said.

While Fine still sees “a lot of negative feedback” about the U.S., “there's definitely a large contingency [of snowbirds] who will return to the U.S. this year,” he said.

Where are Canadians going instead?

While the U.S. has seen declines, other regions are thriving. “South and Central America, Latin America, Mexico and Europe are the top replacement destinations for Canadian travellers right now,” Hendry said.

Spysak backed this up from an Air Canada’s perspective. “We’re seeing strong demand for the Caribbean, Mexico, and new routes to Rio, Santiago, Lima, and Cartagena,” he said. “Canadians are looking for value and unique experiences — and those markets are delivering.”

That said, traditional U.S. favourites like Las Vegas, Orlando, Los Angeles, Fort Lauderdale and Miami still rank highly on Expedia’s bookings list.

“We also see Honolulu, Anaheim and Kīhei high in searches but not in bookings,” Williams said, calling them “aspirational destinations where price sensitivity may be a factor.”

On the snowbird front, Fine said he sees strong interest in international destinations, including Mexico, Portugal, Spain, Costa Rica, the Caribbean, Panama, and even Australia and New Zealand.

Ennis noted that U.S. destinations like Alaska and Hawai’i are still attracting some Canadian visitors.

“They're almost destinations unto themselves, where people don't see them as having an association with the U.S, in a weird way, because they're clearly part of the U.S.,” she said.

Holiday travel: a season of opportunity

The upcoming winter holidays are expected to be strong for outbound travel.

“Nearly 50 per cent of Canadian Expedia users are planning to take a vacation during the winter holidays,” said Williams. “There’s huge opportunity here for growth.”

Canadians, she noted, are motivated by relaxation, new cultural experiences, and activities like sports and entertainment. “Anything that highlights those features will be attractive,” she said.

Spysak agreed, pointing out that many holiday bookings are already in place at Air Canada — but there’s still last-minute potential.

“Our booking window has shortened,” he said. “Special offers and family value packages could attract those still undecided.”

Meanwhile, on the domestic side, Tupman reported that festive experiences in Canada are surging.

“Quebec City Christmas markets, Niagara-on-the-Lake — destinations with that festive spirit are very popular this year,” she said.

Marketing strategies: be present, but read the room

When it comes to marketing U.S. travel, panelists agreed that tone and timing are everything.

“Understated marketing is key right now,” said Fine. “You have to make sure you’re there, but don’t be too aggressive or in people’s faces because it can be seen as tone deaf in the current environment. Address the concerns Canadians have with U.S. destinations and show appreciation — that’s what resonates.”

And wherever possible: “Offer deals and incentives,” Fine added.

Spysak at Air Canada echoed this approach. “We’re doing cautious, soft promotion of U.S. destinations — it’s more about awareness than hard selling,” he said.

Organic content, he said, is especially powerful, like when travellers “share that they felt welcomed in a destination.”

For Tupman, authenticity is essential. “Canadians aren’t looking to be sold to — they’re looking to feel welcome,” she said. “They're looking to be reassured that it's safe to go there, that they don't have to be nervous.”

“If you can show that your destination genuinely values them, that goes a long way.”

Another factor to consider are travellers driven by passion — those who want to see their favourite U.S. sports team, attend a Broadway show in New York, or visit iconic landmarks like the Grand Canyon.

“In our market [seniors], some are very much ‘elbows up.’ However, there's another group of people who are realizing they only have so many healthy years left to travel, which may be more important than politics,” Tupman said.

Sentiment stabilizing — but watch the economy

By late summer, Ennis said, sentiment towards the U.S. was showing improvement.

“The worst time was around April or May,” she said. “Since then, sentiment has stabilized, and we’ve actually gained three points. We’re feeling the worst is past. That's what we're hoping for.”

Demographics are shifting too. Hendry noted that older Canadians are more politically connected and more sensitive to the current climate. Younger travellers, however, are less tied to these issues and more focused on bucket-list travel

Looking ahead, the panelists see both opportunity and risk.

“The media can be inflammatory in Canada, adding confusion,” said Hendry. “The reassurance aspect is an opportunity.”

The main headwinds are financial: cost, exchange rates, interest rates, and tariffs. But the Canadian economy remains stable enough that travellers will likely continue to pack their bags, she said. 

“There is turbulence ahead, but overall, Canadians are projected to still travel,” said Hendry.

At Brand USA, Ennis said the goal is to restore Canada as the U.S.’s number-one inbound international market, leveraging optimism and connection to rebuild confidence.

 “We have to remain positive,” she said.

Celebration of Casey Canevari on Dec. 4

Discover America Canada (DAC) is an organization dedicated to promoting travel and tourism to the U.S. from Canada.

The organization’s next meeting will be in Toronto on December 4 at the Radisson Blu hotel downtown.  

The event will serve as both a holiday party and celebration of Casey Canevari, Brand USA’s former director of global trade development for Canada, who sadly passed away on May 1, 2025.

For more on Discover America Canada, click here.

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