U.S. inbound travel continues to decline amid shifting sentiment

The United States is grappling with sustained challenges in attracting international travellers, as new data from Tourism Economics reveals a projected 8.7 per cent decline in inbound tourism for 2025.

This represents a slight improvement from the 9.4 per cent drop forecasted in March, attributed in part to recent economic data and a slightly weaker U.S. dollar. However, the overall outlook remains bleak.

In a release, Tourism Economics highlights how travellers’ perceptions significantly influence not only their choice of destination but also when they book and how long they stay.

Traveller decisions are increasingly shaped by political, economic, and media narratives surrounding the United States, says the research company. 

Political & economic factors dampen sentiment

International sentiment toward the U.S. continues to be undermined by several factors.

Prominent among these are policy announcements under the Trump administration, including proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs targeting long-time trade partners.

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A persistently strong dollar and widespread media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories have further contributed to a negative image abroad.

"Shifting sentiment and perceptions of the U.S. are expected to continue to weigh heavily on travel demand," said Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, in a statement. "These figures emphasize the importance of monitoring trends and top markets, helping us forecast future impacts on the travel economy."

Sharp declines from key markets

The downturn is particularly pronounced among travellers from Canada and Western Europe, says Tourism Economics.

Canadian arrivals have plummeted by 20.2 per cent, with land border crossings in April dropping a staggering 35.2 per cent compared to the previous year. Air travel from Canada fell by 19.9 per cent over the same period.

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Western European travel to the U.S. saw a more modest but still significant 5.8 per cent decline.

In total, international visitor spending is projected to decrease by $8.5 billion this year—a 4.7 per cent reduction from 2024 levels.

Meanwhile, overall overseas inbound travel (excluding Canada and Mexico) dipped 1.6 per cent year-over-year across March and April. While the Easter holiday led to an 11.6% drop in March arrivals, it partially rebounded with an 8.0 per cent increase in April.

Weak forward bookings

Looking ahead, the situation shows little sign of immediate improvement.

As of April, forward air bookings to the U.S. for the May–July period are down 10.8 per cent compared to last year, pointing to continued caution among international travellers.

Ongoing monitoring

Tourism Economics and Oxford Economics are continuing to monitor developments closely, adjusting forecasts as new information becomes available.

Future projections may be influenced by potential foreign retaliation, shifts in trade policy, and broader impacts on related industry sectors, they say.

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