Bookings on U.S. routes down about 10% amid trade war, says Air Canada

Air Canada’s annual shareholder meeting Monday (March 31) shed some light on the state of cross-border flight bookings amid the United States’ trade war on Canada.

As reported by the Canadian Press, the airline says Canada-U.S. flights for the next six months were “comparable” to an industry-wide drop of about 10 per cent.

The update comes as more Canadians rethink their travel plans to a country whose president has sparked a continental trade war while repeatedly threatening annexation. The shift in travel patterns also may come in response to the weak loonie.

It also shoots down claims made last week by UK-based global travel data provider OAG saying that passenger bookings on Canada–U.S. routes were down by 70 per cent compared to the same period last year.

Shortly after PAX – and several other aviation and trade news outlets – published a story about OAG’s findings, Air Canada’s Christophe Hennebelle, vice president of corporate communications, reached out to us, pushing back at OAG’s data.

“We can confirm that this is not reflective of Air Canada’s booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us,” read a company statement that Hennebelle shared.

“While we have experienced a softening in the transborder market – and have shifted a limited amount of capacity to adapt to it as previously announced – the decline Air Canada has experienced is not of the magnitude cited in the blog. According to our information, when aggregating all indirect and direct booking channels, the decline is significantly less.”

READ MORE: Canada–U.S. bookings are down 70%? Not really, says Air Canada

Even Mike Arnot, a communications advisor who represents Cirium, an aviation analytics company, questioned OAG’s data.

Posting a comment to LinkedIn, Arnot said Cirum’s schedule and booking data are “no where near” the “stark” numbers OAG has circulated.

In a separate LinkedIn post, Arnot noted that advance booking data is limited by its source: online travel agencies and GDS partners. “It's a sample,” he wrote.

He said he ran the numbers with Cirium for all airlines from Toronto, Montreal, Calgary, and Vancouver to New York City, Miami, Denver, Chicago, and Los Angeles for bookings made between January to March, for travel April, May, and June 2025 “and each compared to 2024.”

“Bookings are down, yeah — as reported from the OTAs! — but not [by] 70 per cent,” Arnot wrote.

PAX also contacted Porter and WestJet to get their take on OAG’s data and both airlines said the claims didn’t add up. 

Porter, for one, said its passenger numbers are growing at a greater rate than its capacity.

As PAX reported yesterday, Porter’s presence in the Canada-U.S. market this summer will be 25 per cent larger than last year.

Low-cost carrier Flair Airlines, however, will boost its domestic offering this winter as the demand for U.S. sun trips cools.

Flair’s commercial vice-president Eric Tanner says cross-border trips will comprise just 12 per cent of the airline’s network in winter 2025-26 versus 20 per cent over the past few months, CP reports.

“Overall, we’ve seen more customer and consumer uncertainty. Obviously the U.S. tariff issue is getting a lot of attention, and we’ve certainly seen an impact from that and made network moves to adapt accordingly,” Tanner told the outlet.

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