Bookings on Canada–U.S. flights down 70%: OAG

This story was updated on Thursday, March 27 at 5:07 p.m. EST

A new analysis on airline capacity between Canada and the United States is out – and it doesn’t look good.

As U.S. President Donald Trump’s ongoing tariff threats continue to rock relations with Canada, OAG’s latest scheduling data shows that passenger bookings on Canada–U.S. routes are down by 70 per cent compared to the same period last year.

The drop comes as Canadians rethink their U.S. travel plans by investing in vacations closer to home or elsewhere in the world.

When comparing the total number of scheduled one-way seats between the two countries filed on March 3, and those filed on March 24, more than 320,000 seats have been removed by airlines operating between the two countries through to the end of October, OAG’s data shows.

READ MORE: From “tariffic” deals to muted U.S. marketing: Canadian airlines react to trade war

OAG points out that the most noticeable cuts are in July and August, where airlines have cut capacity by some 3.5 per cent.

Airlines pivot

Adjustments are always to be expected at airlines, but some of the latest changes, in these turbulent times, are worth noting.

As PAX confirmed earlier this week, WestJet, for one, will not proceed with a Calgary-LaGuardia route – despite announcing the service in January.

The seasonal itinerary was supposed to begin May 24 and end on August 30, and would have complemented WestJet’s year-round, daily flights from Calgary to New York’s JFK airport during the same time period.

In addition, the airline has also suspended planned service between Edmonton (YEG) and Orlando International Airport (MCO), Edmonton and Montreal (YUL), and Montreal and Winnipeg (YWG) from its summer 2025 schedule.

In a statement to PAX, WestJet said it has “observed a shift” in bookings from the U.S. to other sun destinations such as Mexico and the Caribbean, and to transatlantic destinations such as Ireland, Scotland and Iceland.

“We remain focused on continuing to fly where there is demand,” Yeats said, saying that it’s common across the aviation industry to adjust schedules to service guest demand.

READ MORE: WestJet confirms cancelled YYC-LGA route, notes other summer suspensions

It appears WestJet is focusing on expanding its Europe offer: the airline has added an additional 114 flights to Europe as they place capacity outside of the U.S., OAG says.

Dublin and Edinburgh are two airports benefiting the most from the changes.

Air Canada, in addition to reducing capacity on routes to Florida, Las Vegas, and Arizona this month, has also reportedly reduced service on three U.S. routes from Vancouver: Washington Dulles (IAD), Houston George Bush (IAH), and Miami International (MIA).

United Airlines has also reportedly cancelled its planned Los Angeles to Toronto service.

Future bookings “have collapsed"

Meanwhile, future flight bookings between Canada and the U.S. “have collapsed,” says OAG.

Using forward-booking data from “a major GDS supplier,” the company compared the total bookings held at this point last year with those recorded this week for the upcoming summer season.

READ MORE: Canada–U.S. bookings are down 70%? Not really, says Air Canada

“The decline is striking — bookings are down by over 70 per cent in every month through to the end of September,” wrote John Grant on OAG’s blog. “This sharp drop suggests that travellers are holding off on making reservations, likely due to ongoing uncertainty surrounding the broader trade dispute.”

Air Canada refutes report

Air Canada, Thursday afternoon, issued a statement, denying OAG's data and claims. 

"We can confirm that this is not reflective of Air Canada’s booking patterns, nor the state of the market, based on all information sources available to us," reads a company statement. "While we have experienced a softening in the transborder market – and have shifted a limited amount of capacity to adapt to it as previously announced –  the decline Air Canada has experienced is not of the magnitude cited in the blog. According to our information, when aggregating all indirect and direct booking channels, the decline is significantly less." 

The airline added that it will discuss trends and volumes on its quarterly calls, as usual. 

Traffic drops to COVID-era levels

This past February, Canadian residents flew back from 585,700 trips to the U.S., which represented a 13.1 per cent decline from the same month in 2024, reports Statistics Canada.

Land border crossings from the U.S. have also seen a significant downturn in recent weeks. According to the data, Canadians returning by land is down 23 per cent year-over-year, while Americans entering Canada by land is down 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

According to the latest data from the U.S. Customs and Border Protection (CBP), nearly 500,000 fewer travellers crossed the land border from Canada into the U.S. in February compared to the same month last year.

The number of travellers entering the U.S. in a vehicle dropped from 2,696,512 in February 2024 to 2,223,408 last month, reaching levels not seen since cross-border travel normalized after the COVID-19 pandemic.

Earlier this month, Flight Centre Travel Group Canada said its leisure bookings to U.S. cities dropped 40 per cent in February from the same month in 2024, while one in five customers cancelled their trips to the U.S. over the past three months.

“We’re making those choices to travel to destinations that really align more with our values,” Flight Centre spokeswoman Amra Durakovic told the Canadian Press on March 5.

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