Asia likely to be affected first by possible jet fuel shortage: IATA Chief

A potential jet fuel shortage linked to the conflict in Iran may affect Asia first, particularly as demand rises during the northern hemisphere’s busy summer season, according to the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA).

As reported by Reuters on Tuesday (April 28), Willie Walsh says the situation could then spread to Europe, followed by Africa and Latin America, possibly leading to some flight cancellations if fuel supplies are limited.

"I think we will see airlines starting to reduce some of their schedules as we go towards the peak summer period in anticipation of some fuel shortages," he told the outlet.

Jet fuel costs have surged to roughly twice their pre-conflict levels since fighting began between the U.S., Israel, and Iran in late February.

READ MORE: Jet fuel crisis: Lufthansa cancels 20,000 flights, United mulls 15-20% fare increase

Iran has essentially shut down the Strait of Hormuz – normally a key route for about a quarter of global seaborne oil shipments.

In addition, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps has targeted oil and gas facilities in nearby U.S.-allied Arab nations such as Saudi Arabia and Qatar, adding further strain to global energy supplies.

Asia is seen as especially exposed to the situation, as many of its countries depend heavily on fuel imports.

Despite concerns, Walsh noted that travel is still expected to continue, unlike during the height of the COVID pandemic when flights were largely halted.

"I think that ‌people ⁠will continue to fly through the summer period and that people will expect to have a holiday during the summer as they have in previous years," he said, noting that demand has remained ⁠strong around the world.

He also mentioned that supplies of Jet A fuel, which has a higher freezing point, might help alleviate shortages in Europe.

"We could see supplies of Jet A fuel being used in Europe, provided we have the regulators move fast ⁠enough and that they're satisfied that the specification of the fuel is okay to use,” he said.

High-priced flying

As reported earlier, airline executives are warning that today’s expensive airfares might not be temporary – they could become the standard, even if fuel costs eventually settle down.

A recent report from consultancy Teneo found that global airfares are up 24 per cent compared to last year – the biggest jump for this period in five years.

READ MORE: "Increase prices or cut back": Jet fuel crisis deepens, airlines scrap flights worldwide

At United Airlines, EVP and Chief Commercial Officer Andrew Nocella suggested that higher prices are here to stay.

“The longer consumers pay these prices and airlines get used to this revenue stream, the more likely it is to stick,” he said during the company’s earnings call. "That's the simple perspective on it."

Airlines aren’t stopping at fares – they’re also boosting extra fees.

United and Delta Air Lines have both raised baggage charges, making it more expensive to check even a single bag.

READ MORE: Jet fuel crisis: Lufthansa cancels 20,000 flights, United mulls 15-20% fare increase

Other carriers are on the same page. American Airlines CEO Robert Isom says customers are still willing to pay more, with strong growth expected.

Meanwhile, Alaska Air Group CEO Ben Minicucci, speaking to investors on April 21, says some of the higher fares are already “sticking.”

Route cutting in Canada

In Canada, Air Canada, Air Transat and WestJet are cutting routes or reducing capacity as they navigate rising jet fuel costs.

As reported Monday (April 27), Air Canada has cancelled its seasonal Montreal–Algiers service for summer 2026, making it the seventh route affected by rising fuel costs.

Air Transat has reduced planned capacity by six per cent from May to October, with the extended suspension of its Cuba service through October accounting for most of that reduction.

WestJet has also trimmed capacity, reducing flights by about one per cent in April, three per cent in May and approximately six per cent in June, while consolidating service on lower-demand routes.

The Calgary-based carrier has also rolled out higher checked baggage fees as of April 23, effective immediately.

READ MORE: WestJet cuts capacity amid rising fuel prices, "minimal impact" on U.S., sun

Passengers who pay at the airport will be charged an extra $10 for each of their first two checked bags, while those who pay in advance will see a smaller increase of $5 per bag for those same items.

Additionally, Air Canada, Air Canada Vacations, WestJet (inclusive of Sunwing), Porter Airlines, Air Transat, and Flair Airlines have all signalled that they will raise ticket prices or introduce fuel surcharges as a way to cope with escalating fuel costs.

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