"Increase prices or cut back": Jet fuel crisis deepens, airlines scrap flights worldwide

A growing jet fuel crisis is raising the risk of widespread flight disruptions this summer, particularly across Europe, where experts warn supply shortages could force airlines to cancel flights and raise fares.

The head of the International Energy Agency recently warned Europe has "maybe six weeks or so" of jet fuel remaining, according to the Associated Press, as supply disruptions tied to the U.S.-Israel war with Iran and the associated closure of the Strait of Hormuz continue to strain global markets.

"If there's a shortage, the only alternative is to increase prices or just cut back on the number of flights," Roger McKnight, chief petroleum strategist at energy consultancy En-Pro, told the Toronto Star.

Early signs of strain are already emerging, with some airports introducing fuel restrictions and airlines adjusting routes, according to the report.

Europe at highest risk

Experts say Europe is particularly vulnerable because, while European refiners produce roughly 70 per cent of the continent's jet fuel domestically, approximately 75 per cent of its imported supply comes from the Middle East — meaning the Strait of Hormuz closure is cutting off a significant portion of total supply.

"The problem might arise when you're returning from Europe," former Air Canada executive and McGill University lecturer John Gradek told the Toronto Star.

"You may be leaving from an airport that may have restrictions because they're rationing fuel."

Gradek added that some countries, including Italy, have already begun implementing restrictions, with other markets expected to follow as supplies tighten.

In a separate interview with CTV News, Gradek warned the situation could worsen in the coming weeks.

"You'll have short-haul flights being cancelled, long-haul flights will be rationed for fuel," he said. 

"It'll be a little bit of chaos this summer in the EU."

Gradek said travellers should be prepared for disruption and consider backup plans.

"You're going to be in a situation of making sure you have a plan B and a plan C," he said.

Airlines cutting capacity

Airlines are already responding.

Global News reports that Lufthansa says it will cancel 20,000 short-haul flights between May and October, citing soaring fuel costs tied to the conflict. 

The cuts are expected to save more than 40,000 metric tons of jet fuel.

The airline said additional reductions are likely to be announced in the coming weeks.

Canadian airlines have also begun adjusting operations as fuel costs rise.

As previously reported by PAX, Air Transat has reduced planned capacity by six per cent from May to October, with the extended suspension of its Cuba service through October accounting for most of that reduction.

Air Canada has suspended six routes, including flights between Toronto and Montreal and New York's JFK Airport — effective June 1 — as well as Toronto–Salt Lake City, which is not expected to return until 2027. 

The airline said the cuts represent about one per cent of planned capacity.

WestJet has also trimmed capacity, reducing flights by about one per cent in April, three per cent in May and approximately six per cent in June, while consolidating service on lower-demand routes. 

The airline has also introduced a temporary fuel surcharge on some bookings.

While carriers say fuel supply in Canada remains stable, rising costs are already being passed on to travellers.

"We're talking hundreds and hundreds of dollars," travel insurance broker Martin Firestone told the Toronto Star, referring to potential fuel surcharges.

What it means for travellers

With jet fuel prices surging and supply constraints tightening, analysts say travellers can expect higher fares, fewer flight options and an increased risk of cancellations, particularly on European routes.

Gradek said the outlook remains uncertain as airlines work to secure supply.

"It's a very fluid situation," he said. "The crystal ball is pretty clouded today."

Don't miss a single travel story: subscribe to PAX today!  Click here to follow PAX on Facebook.