Air Transat & WestJet: general travel demand remains steady amid U.S. trade war

Two major airlines say Canadians are still spending money on travel even as economic worries grow amid a trade war with the United States.

Transat’s CEO Annick Guérard, in a recent interview with the Canadian Press, said customers are continuing to book transatlantic flights while the demand for U.S. destinations drops.

“Besides the U.S. market...we have not seen — yet — other negative impacts on our booking curve following tariff announcements,” Guérard said last Thursday (March 13) when the airline and tour operator released its Q1 results.

“We are well aware that the current environment is affecting overall consumer confidence, and this could eventually affect travel demand. But we haven’t seen any impact over the last weeks.”

Transat flies to only two U.S. destinations in Florida (Orlando and Fort Lauderdale). The nearly 300 trips per month make up roughly 12 per cent of the airline’s total flights.

According to data from Cirium, Air Transat, amid the backlash to tariff threats imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump, as well as a weak loonie, has reduced capacity to the U.S. by 10 per cent compared to what was planned at the start of 2025.

READ MORE: ACTA outlines U.S. tariffs’ impact on travel & advocacy plan at town hall

The market’s uncertainty may lead to more last-minute bookings as customers consider whether to spend their weaker Canadian dollars on travel.

“People potentially will hesitate before making any bookings,” Guérard said, noting the “unstable economic environment…things are looking good, for now.”

WestJet is singing a similar tune. During an interview with CNBC last week, Alex Cruz, vice-chair of WestJet and former CEO of British Airways, said more Canadians are avoiding the U.S. in protest of Trump's tariffs on Canadian goods.

"There's clearly been a reaction," Cruz told the program. "Statistics are coming through about U.S.–Canada border crossings and they've been down over last couple weeks...And we at WestJet have also noticed a decline in traffic.”

U.S. demand drops 

Indeed, as per the latest February counts from Statistics Canada, traffic to the U.S., from Canada, has dropped as calls to "buy Canadian," and boycott the U.S., intensified. 

Land border crossings from the U.S. have seen the most significant downturn in recent weeks. According to the data, Canadians returning by land is down 23 per cent year-over-year, while Americans entering Canada by land is down 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

READ MORE: Gov’t data on Canada-U.S. travel patterns, amid “boycott” calls, now available

Air travel, meanwhile, shows a smaller but noticeable decline, StatCan data shows.

Canadians returning by air is down 2.4 per cent year-over-year while Americans entering Canada by air is down 1.3 per cent year-over-year. An upcoming sharper decline is expected as more Canadians decide to avoid the U.S. 

Canadians travel elsewhere

As expected, Canadians are redirecting their travel dollars elsewhere. Instead of visiting Phoenix or Florida, they’re going to Dominican Republic, Jamaica or Mexico, Cruz said.

"Canadians are seeking to continue travelling overall. It's just that it may shift from the U.S. to other leisure destinations,” he said.

The hope is that current geopolitical tensions will be temporary as it has the potential to seriously damage the economy, Cruz said, noting that WestJet is not seeing similar shifts in travel patterns among Europeans bound for the United States amid the trade war.

Canadians represent the largest cohort of foreign inbound tourists to the U.S., spending $20.5 billion in 2024—the biggest economic impact of any other country—the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office says.

Trump’s initial order, effective March 4, imposed a blanket 25 per cent tariff on all Canadian goods, excluding energy products, which face a 10 per cent tariff. The order has since been paused on some Canadian goods.

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