Gov’t data on Canada-U.S. travel patterns, amid “boycott” calls, now available

This story was updated on Monday, March 10 at 10:14 a.m. EST.

The first official government data on Canada–U.S. travel patterns, ever since calls to "boycott" U.S. travel in response to U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariffs on Canada intensified, is now available.

U.S. Customs and Border Protection data on international air arrivals shows that in February 2025, airlines carried two per cent fewer non-U.S. citizen passengers from Canada to the U.S. compared to February 2024.

When non-U.S. citizens fly to the U.S. via Canada, they are choosing Canadian airlines versus U.S. airlines, the data shows. U.S. flag carriage of these passengers is down 5.1 per cent versus 1.1 per cent for carriage on Canadian airlines.

The figure is based on APIS data covering Canadian and U.S.-flagged commercial carriers.

“A clearer picture”

The information was shared by Avery Campbell, director of advocacy and industry relations at The Association of Canadian Travel Agencies and Travel Advisors (ACTA), on his LinkedIn account over the weekend.

READ MORE: Trump's 25% tariffs spark recession fears; travel industry pivots to limit impact

More data on U.S.-Canada travel trends (from Statistics Canada and U.S. CBP, for instance) is expected to be released in the coming days.

“These upcoming releases will provide a clearer picture of the evolving travel landscape between Canada and the U.S.,” wrote Campbell, who will be hosting an advocacy town hall, on behalf of ACTA, tomorrow (Tuesday, March 11) at 1 p.m. EST.

As previously reported, Campbell will be providing updates on Canada-U.S. relations, and will discuss how ACTA is supporting travel advisors and agencies across Canada. You can register for the event here.

READ MORE: From “tariffic” deals to muted U.S. marketing: Canadian airlines react to trade war

A French version will take place on Thursday, March 13, 2025 at 1 p.m. ET with Patrice Malacort, membership manager, Quebec. Register here.

Earlier this month, commenting on Trump’s tariff measures (which were recently paused, to a degree), ACTA noted the "significant economic consequences” the policy would have on travel and tourism.

In particular, the Canadian dollar will fall even more against the U.S. currency, further weakening Canadians’ buying power and appetite for travel, the association says.

"As Canadian companies face higher costs, job losses will inevitably follow, reducing disposable income for millions of households. If these tariffs are not short-lived the direct impact on Canadians' purchasing power will significantly harm travel advisors as their clients delay or cancel travel plans due to financial constraints," ACTA said.

An upcoming "sharper decline" 

Campbell shared another statistical update on Monday (March 10), posting the latest February counts from Statistics Canada.

Land border crossings from the U.S. have seen a significant downturn in recent weeks. According to the data, Canadians returning by land is down 23 per cent year-over-year, while Americans entering Canada by land is down 7.9 per cent year-over-year.

From the same source, air travel shows a smaller but "noticeable" decline, Campbell shared.

Canadians returning by air is down 2.4 per cent year-over-year while Americans entering Canada by air is down 1.3 per cent year-over-year. 

Campbell's prediction is that the relatively stable air numbers might be masking an "upcoming sharper decline." 

"Many travellers committed to flights long before recent events influenced travel choices, keeping current air travel numbers steady," Campbell wrote on LinkedIn. "In contrast, land travel trends suggest a higher sensitivity and flexibility among travellers. We should expect air travel figures to reflect this shift more dramatically in the coming months." 

February airline data

Airline data for February also paints a picture of how travel patterns are taking shape.

According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, Air Transat has reduced capacity to the U.S. by 10 per cent compared to what was planned at the start of 2025.

Air Transat operates limited flights to cities in Florida, such as Orlando and Fort Lauderdale – and it says its adjustments are normal.

“We have not observed any significant changes in our customers' travel habits to the United States,” wrote spokesperson Bernard Côté in an email to PAX Feb. 28. “Despite a slight slowdown at the beginning of the month, demand appears to be returning to normal levels. We continuously adjust our capacity across all our destinations, including the South and Europe, based on demand fluctuations and our projections.”

Porter Airlines, which flies to 16 U.S. destinations, also appears to be reducing its service south of the border, cutting flights by eight per cent, Cirium’s data shows.

Porter spokesperson Brad Cicero told PAX that the adjustment isn’t a direct response to the geopolitical situation with the U.S.

READ MORE: Air Transat & Porter downplay recent reductions to U.S. capacity amid tariff threats

He said that while Porter initially saw some softening on select U.S. leisure routes, “Canadians are continuing to travel to the U.S.”

Porter’s eight per cent adjustment can be better understood by noting the airline’s overall growth and increase in the U.S., which amounts to 150 per cent year-over-year, he said. 

Schedules are filed months in advance “and always have near-term adjustments,” Cicero clarified, calling eight per cent “a modest, typical change in light of this growth.”

It seems Air Canada and WestJet were largely spared in February from making drastic reductions to their U.S. schedules.

Cirium reports that Air Canada reduced its U.S. service by just 2.5 per cent, while WestJet's reductions stood at 1.5 per cent.

Low-cost carrier Flair Airlines also appears to have reduced its U.S. capacity by 6.5 per cent, Cirium reports.

Canadians cancel travel 

A Leger poll released last month of 1,553 Canadian adults showed that nearly half (48 per cent) are less likely to visit the United States amid shifting Canada-U.S. relations.

In a report last week, Flight Centre Travel Group Canada said its leisure bookings to U.S. cities dropped 40 per cent in February from the same month in 2024, while one in five customers cancelled their trips to the U.S. over the past three months.

“We’re making those choices to travel to destinations that really align more with our values,” Flight Centre spokeswoman Amra Durakovic told the Canadian Press on March 5.

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