On Location: Caribbean targets Canadian market amid changing U.S. dynamics

Canada is a key topic of conversation at this year’s Caribbean Travel Marketplace, which kicked off on Monday (May 19) in Antigua and Barbuda.

The annual event,  which PAX is covering on location, began at Sandals Grande Antigua with a forum highlighting the latest developments in Caribbean tourism, bringing together regional suppliers, wholesalers, and media representatives

Olivier Ponti, director of intelligence and marketing at ForwardKeys, delivered a presentation on data-driven Caribbean travel trends for 2025, with a particular emphasis on the Canadian market.

He noted that flight searches from Canada to the Caribbean for travel in Q3 (July to September) this year are up 22 per cent year-over-year, fuelled largely by major urban centres—most notably Montreal, which has seen a remarkable 62 per cent surge in interest – notably, in the U.S. Virgin Islands, British Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, St Kitts & Nevis, Haiti, Bermuda, the Cayman Islands, St. Lucia, Saint Vincent & the Grenadines, and Antigua and Barbuda.

Airlines appear to be recognizing this opportunity, with seat capacity from Canada to the Caribbean this summer forecasted to be 16 per cent higher than last year. Although, this increase still lags behind the growth in travel intent (+22 per cent), suggesting potential unmet demand.

Ponti highlighted Canada as a key growth market for Caribbean tourism but pointed out that limited direct air routes remain a significant barrier to realizing their potential. Online searches from Canada between July and September surged for the U.S. Virgin Islands at +193 per cent, British Virgin Islands at +124 per cent, Puerto Rico at +121 per cent and Saint Kitts & Nevis +92 per cent, he said.

“Currently, the lack of direct summer flights forces the majority of Canadian travellers heading to the Caribbean in Q3 to transit via the U.S., with Atlanta serving as the primary hub. This reliance on connections adds complexity and potential cost and reveals a clear opportunity for airlines and DMOs to collaborate on adding or extending direct flight schedules further into the summer low season,” Ponti said.

"Sentiment towards the U.S. has plummeted"

Naturally, the topic of tariffs and uncertain economies in light of decisions being made by the U.S. administration was a hot topic, and addressed by Zeek Coleman, vice president, Americas at Tourism Economics, during a presentation on geopolitical and economic disrupters, and the expected impact on Caribbean tourism.

Coleman discussed the effects of inflation, and the low unemployment rate (4.2 per cent) in the U.S. in 2023. Major changes in 2024 (including a shift in economic policies by the U.S. government) also changed the landscape.

“Travel growth in the U.S. flatlined,” he said. But a closer look at the numbers revealed that while the upper end of the travel market was increasing, the more budget conscious tourist travel numbers were decreasing.   

Air travel is holding up, with intended trips remaining high and average spends coming in at $6,000 U.S.

Tellingly, 53 per cent of U.S. travel consumers feel that Americans are less welcome in other countries, due to current U.S. politics. Additionally, 20 per cent of global travel advisors state that they are cancelling trips to the U.S., according to Tourism Economics.

“The sentiment towards the U.S. has plummeted,” said Coleman, attributing it to the trade war, the “51st state” language aimed at Canada, the Denmark/Greenland tensions and the fear factor of deportations, detainments and associated travel warnings.

The challenge for Caribbean countries will be to attract the part of the U.S. market that is hesitant to spend money on non-domestic travel.

At present, no statistics were presented at the conference that showed that Caribbean travel from Canada was up.

All about the beach

Carl Gordon, government, strategic growth, English Caribbean at Mastercard, identified the five big travel trends that the Mastercard 2025 Global Travel Trends Report revealed.

They are, in order, business visitors that stay longer (and spend more), wellness (health and fitness, yoga retreats…etc), wilderness (adventure and ecotourism), foodie (diversity in trying new cuisines) and that “beaches are back.”

He encouraged the tourism partners in the room to feature beaches in their advertising efforts, saying that the research shows that the trend of visiting big cities (Paris and Rome, for example) is waning, with the exception of Tokyo and Osaka.

“Beaches are the second-most important asset in the Caribbean,” said Gordon, “and the people are the first.”

A panel discussion on the challenges of fixing the Intra-Caribbean airlift was spirited, looking at how to cross promote Caribbean countries to each other, and exploring the effect that air connectivity has on tourism, trade and collaboration.

The panel included the Commissioner of Tourism and Culture of Saint-Martin, and past and present airline operators.

Sustainable tourism is a big topic for the Caribbean as they build on their reputation for resiliency and what the future will bring.

The final panel discussion of the morning reviewed Barbuda’s emergence as a model for sustainable tourism, and focused on the restoration of the island of Redonda, a formerly barren island now transformed into a protected area for migrating birds.  Antigua and Barbuda is also focused on preserving marine ecosystems and building their climate resilience.

The big Canadian question

Gordon summed up the opportunity and the challenge in attracting more tourists from Canada.

“Some Canadians still prefer closer-to-home destinations, but they are currently forgoing the U.S. How do we reach the Canadians who are now focusing on markets other than the U.S. but are still considering their day-to-day spend?” he said. “All of these are economic decisions. How do you reach them, how do you convince them now that they are no longer thinking about going to Miami, or Cape Cod, but consider Antigua? Or Barbados, St. Lucia, Angilla? Economics is now a prominent decision for all of your target markets.”

Day one at Caribbean Travel Marketplace concluded with an opening celebration under the theme “Expressions: An Evening of Youth and Culture,” presented by Antigua and Barbuda tourism.

It featured a cultural production (Arwe Antiguan Marketplace), live Youth Steel Orchestra, an exclusive art exhibition and artisan market, vibes by Youth DJs, and the opportunity for guests to explore the gardens of the historic Weatherill Estate and to catch some views from the sugar mill tower.

Day two of the conference will continue with press conferences from Caribbean countries and media interviews. More to come.

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