Will U.S. tourism see a “Trump slump?” Travel pros sound off on presidential election

Donald Trump was elected the 47th president of the United States early Wednesday (Nov. 6), the Associated Press reports, marking a return to office for the former president after an eventful period marked by challenges.

Trump secured a win over Vice President Kamala Harris, winning the key states of Wisconsin and Pennsylvania, with a combined 29 electoral votes to clinch the 270 necessary to win the nation’s top job.

What will the result mean for U.S. travel and tourism? Regardless of the election outcome, the industry typically sees a slowdown in the weeks leading up to, and after, a presidential election.

Marriott International has already alluded to this. In a statement earlier this week, the hotelier’s CFO Kathleen Oberg said the election has curtailed demand to a greater degree than previous ones.

Marriott has “meaningfully lower” bookings for this week and the next, Oberg said Monday on an earnings, reports say.

“The election impact on U.S. and Canada [revenue per available room] is forecasted to be around negative 300 basis points in November and negative 100 basis points for the quarter, double that of past election cycles,” Oberg said on the call, a transcript of which was made available by AlphaSense. 

Other travel and hospitality businesses have said demand was softening heading into the election. “What happens during a national election is that people tend to stay home,” Avis Budget Group President and CEO Joseph Ferraro said during his company's conference call on Monday

U.S. airlines Delta, United and JetBlue are also expecting travel to cool around Election Day, which is in line with past trends.

But there are also broader travel-related implications to consider around Trump’s presidential win.

The U.S. is set to attract 90 million visitors by 2026, a year ahead of the State Department’s original projections, Secretary of Commerce Gina Raimondo said last week, Skift reports.

U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said recently the U.S. issued 11.5 million visas in fiscal 2024, 8.5 million of which were visitor visas, up 10 per cent from 2023.

The Biden-Harris administration had made progress in expediting U.S. visitor visa application reviews to fix the backlog that had built up during the pandemic. Whereas during the past Trump administration, visa issuances were declining as applications were subject to more enhanced screening, vetting and rejections from countries flagged for higher security concerns.

Then there’s the issue of travel bans. In 2017, then-President Donald Trump enacted bans on citizens of Iran, Iraq, Libya, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, and Yemen, and he said he'd do it again and expand the rules to prevent refugees from war-torn Gaza from entering the U.S.

Trump’s win may also shape the future of U.S. aviation. The Biden-Harris administration were tough on mergers, killing JetBlue’s merger with Spirit Airlines and JetBlue’s Northeast Alliance with American.

The same administration was also big on implementing tougher rules that protected consumers, such as mandating that U.S. airlines issue automatic refunds for cancelled or significantly delayed flights. 

A rule that would require price transparency by U.S. airlines is also being looked at and Trump’s new administration would play a big part in deciding whether or not it passes.

Will Canadians steer clear?

Will the U.S. election results lead to a “Trump slump” among Canadian travellers?

Ontario-based Ethel Hansen Davey, a senior travel advisor at Uniglobe Enterprise Travel Ltd, wasn’t thrilled about Wednesday’s news.

“I’m still in a state of disbelief that arrogance and ignorance have raised their ugly heads in such a powerful way,” she told PAX.

To that end, she doesn’t believe the election results will have a profound impact on her U.S. travel sales.

“My few U.S.-bound clients are people that are snowbirds with properties and/or family in Florida and the odd Las Vegas party group,” she said.

One trend she has noticed, since 2016, is that many of her clients will request that their flights to Europe, South America, Australia or Asia not connect through the United States.  

As for her cruise clients, which is not a huge part of her business, “they will still, for the most part, have to depart from U.S. ports.”

Zeina Gedeon, president and CEO of Trevello Travel Group, said the travel industry will evolve around whatever is thrown its way. 

"With Donald Trump’s re-election, our industry faces both challenges and opportunities," Gedeon said. "His environmental stance raises concerns as we strive to advance sustainability, and ongoing uncertainties in labour supply remain a priority that need to be addressed. However, new business opportunities may emerge as policies evolve." 

"While the full impact is yet to be seen, our industry has proven resilient, and we will continue to adapt, innovate and thrive amidst change. Our commitment to innovation, sustainability, and customer service will drive us forward in this dynamic environment." 

Shalene Dudley, a lead travel concierge at Latitude Concierge Travels, also based in Ontario, believes there may have been some hesitation to commit to travel among her U.S-based clients.

“After they exhale, I am hopeful that we can have an amazing 2025,” Dudley told PAX.

She added that she hasn’t seen many changes among her Canadian clients requesting U.S destinations. “But I am considering that may change in the coming months,” she said.

B.C.-based McKenzie McMillan, manager of supplier relations and a luxury consultant at The Travel Group, first noted “a definite hesitation” to visit the U.S. from his clients in 2016 when Trump was first elected as president.

“I think, this time, those concerns will be louder, especially from clients who are in visible minority groups or LGBTQ clients who may feel their safety is now at risk when travelling to the United States,” McMillan told PAX.

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