Trump’s tariffs loom, U.S. border crossings dip

U.S. tariffs against Canada are set to come into effect on Tuesday (March 4), but their level will be decided by U.S. President Donald Trump, the U.S commerce secretary Howard Lutnick said Sunday (March 2).

Trump has promised to impose 25 per cent tariffs in response to what he says is an unacceptable flow of illegal drugs and migrants into the United States.

Canada has repeatedly said tariffs will harm both economies, with Prime Minister Justin Trudeau calling the move "entirely unjustified,” vowing swift retaliation if Trump follows through.

Last month, the Canadian government pledged to hit the U.S. with retaliatory 25 per cent tariffs on $155 billion worth of American goods coming into Canada. The action was ultimately put on hold after Trump paused levying tariffs on Canada for at least 30 days.

READ MORE: “I’m absolutely concerned”: Travel advisors, execs respond to trade war; some cancellations reported

That pause ends tomorrow, and according to a new Leger poll, Canadians are taking the threat seriously.

The majority of Canadians surveyed by Leger, 83 per cent, are concerned that Trump will use the tariffs to push for a “closer and more formal economic relationship with the United States.”

The fear extends across the country, reaching its highest at 85 per cent in the Atlantic provinces and lowest in Ontario at 81 per cent.

Canadians rethink U.S. travel

What does this all mean for the travel industry? A shift in travel behaviours, for starters, as Canadians cancel or postpone trips to the United States.  

Amid calls to “buy Canadian,” along with requests from politicians to cancel trips to the U.S., and a weak loonie, more Canadians are rethinking where they should spend their travel budgets – a movement WestJet’s CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech acknowledged recently.

Ever since the tariff announcements, WestJet’s sales from Canada into the U.S. have “dropped very significantly,” von Hoensbroech told reporters last month.

READ MORE: Air Transat & Porter downplay recent reductions to U.S. capacity amid tariff threats

Air Canada, too, is monitoring a shift in market dynamics.

During an earnings call last month, Executive Vice President of Revenue and Network Planning and President of Cargo Mark Galardo said the airline would reduce capacity on select routes to Florida, Las Vegas, and Arizona starting in March, citing the ongoing Canada-U.S. tariff dispute and the weak dollar.

Air Transat and Porter Airlines have also reduced their U.S. capacity, PAX confirmed last week.

However, both airlines are calling the adjustments normal, asserting that they’re still seeing demand for U.S. destinations from Canada.

A Leger poll released last month paints a general picture of Canadian attitudes around U.S. travel and how a possible trade war may impact travel decisions.

In a survey of 1,553 Canadian adults, nearly half (48 per cent) said they are less likely to visit the United States amid shifting Canada-U.S. relations.

In contrast, just one in ten (10 per cent) say they are more likely to travel south, while 43 per cent report no change in their U.S. travel intentions.

A recent travel study by Blue Cross also suggests a change in Canadian attitudes.

Among a pool of 2,072 Canadian adults who have either travelled in the past 12 months, or plan to travel in the next 12 months (or both), nearly half (47 per cent) said they are less likely to visit the U.S. in the next 12 months following the recent U.S. election.

Fewer cars crossing border in B.C.

New data out of British Columbia released last week appears to support claims that fewer people are travelling to the U.S. as political tensions rise, Global News reports. 

Data provided by Cascade Gateway, which provides border wait times, shows that in February this year so far, there have been on average 3,500 cars heading to the U.S. through the Peace Arch border crossing.

That is compared to almost 5,000 a day in February 2024. 

The shift in spending is expected to hit U.S. economies hard. Last month, the U.S. Travel Association, which represents all components of the U.S. travel industry, revealed that a mere 10 per cent reduction in Canadian visitation could result in two million fewer visits, including $2.1 billion (USD) in lost spending.

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