Air Transat & Porter downplay recent reductions to U.S. capacity amid tariff threats

As U.S. President Donald Trump doubles down on his threat to slap 25 per cent tariffs on Canada next Tuesday (March 4), possible adjustments are on the horizon at Canadian airlines as the demand for U.S. travel faces uncertainty. 

Amid calls to “buy Canadian,” along with requests from politicians to cancel trips to the U.S., and the weak loonie, more Canadians are rethinking where they should spend their travel budgets – a movement WestJet’s CEO Alexis von Hoensbroech acknowledged recently.

“What we have seen, since the tariff announcements, is that our sales from Canada into the U.S. have actually dropped very significantly,” von Hoensbroech told reporters earlier this month.

Air Canada, too, is monitoring shifting market dynamics. During a Q4/2024 earnings call this month, Executive Vice President of Revenue and Network Planning and President of Cargo Mark Galardo said the airline will reduce capacity on select routes to Florida, Las Vegas, and Arizona starting in March, citing the ongoing Canada-U.S. tariff dispute and the weak Canadian dollar.

Updates from Air Transat & Porter

As February comes to an end, other Canadian carriers could be taking a similar approach – however, airlines say there's additional context to consider.

According to new data from Cirium, acquired and published by Montreal-based newspaper La Presse, Air Transat has reduced capacity to the U.S. by 10 per cent compared to what was planned at the start of 2025.

Air Transat operates limited flights to cities in Florida, such as Orlando and Fort Lauderdale. But for the airline’s part, the adjustments are business as usual.

READ MORE: Tariff dispute: Air Canada to reduce U.S. capacity, WestJet sees 25% drop

“We have not observed any significant changes in our customers' travel habits to the United States,” wrote spokesperson Bernard Côté in an email to PAX on Friday morning (Feb. 28).  “Despite a slight slowdown at the beginning of the month, demand appears to be returning to normal levels. We continuously adjust our capacity across all our destinations, including the South and Europe, based on demand fluctuations and our projections.”

“Canadians are continuing to travel to the U.S.”

Porter Airlines, which flies to 16 U.S. destinations, also appears to be reducing its service south of the border, cutting flights by eight per cent, Cirium’s data shows.

But Porter spokesperson Brad Cicero says this adjustment isn’t a direct response to the geopolitical situation with the U.S.

“We are mindful of the overall economic situation and are monitoring booking patterns,” Cicero told PAX on Friday. 

He said that while Porter initially saw some softening on select U.S. leisure routes, “Canadians are continuing to travel to the U.S.”

He said Porter’s eight per cent adjustment can be better understood by noting the airline’s overall growth and increase in the U.S., which amounts to 150 per cent year-over-year.

Schedules are filed months in advance “and always have near-term adjustments,” Cicero clarified, calling eight per cent “a modest, typical change in light of this growth.”

“We are at the point of the winter season when capacity adjustments are always made as part of the transition to summer schedules, where 75 per cent of peak capacity is planned for domestic routes,” Cicero told PAX.  

A shift in attitudes

It isn’t entirely known just how many Canadians are, in fact, cancelling trips to the United States. However, anecdotal evidence from travel advisors suggests that some people may be reconsidering their U.S. vacations as political tensions rise.

A Leger poll released earlier this month paints a general picture of the situation. In a survey among 1,553 Canadian adults, nearly half (48 per cent) said they are less likely to visit the United States amid shifting Canada-U.S. relations.

In contrast, just one in ten (10 per cent) say they are more likely to travel south, while 43 per cent report no change in their U.S. travel intentions.

For those avoiding U.S. travel, domestic Canadian travel was listed at the top alternative.

Six-in-ten (61 per cent) of those less likely to visit the U.S. plan to explore Canada instead – 30 per cent will travel within their home province, while 31 per cent will visit another province within Canada, the survey showed.

Meanwhile, one-third (33 per cent) are planning to travel outside North America, and six per cent plan to skip travel altogether.

Additionally, older Canadians (55+) are the most likely to cut back on U.S. travel, Leger’s survey shows.

The shift in attitudes is expected to hit U.S. economies hard.

Earlier this month, the U.S. Travel Association, which represents all components of the U.S. travel industry, revealed that a mere 10 per cent reduction in Canadian visitation could result in two million fewer visits, including $2.1 billion (USD) in lost spending.

According to Cirium’s data, Air Canada and WestJet have, so far, been largely spared from making drastic reductions to their U.S. flight schedules.

The firm reports that Air Canada has reduced its U.S. service by just 2.5 per cent, while WestJet's reductions stand at 1.5 per cent.

Low-cost carrier Flair Airlines also appears to have reduced its U.S. capacity by 6.5 per cent, Cirium’s data shows.

Air Canada’s Mark Galardo said if Canada’s flag carrier does see a significant drop on the U.S. side, it will offset it with “typical changes,” such as redeploying capacity into its sun markets, “where we see a lot of demand [and] interest right now.”

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