Researchers find 42% drop in Canadians visiting U.S. metro areas

A new research tool that monitors cell phone activity has identified a 42 per cent decrease in visits from Canadians to major U.S. metropolitan areas — a drop far steeper than official border-crossing figures suggest — indicating that Canadians in the second Trump administration may be especially avoiding U.S. cities.

Researchers at the University of Toronto said the tool revealed a “year-over-year median decline of approximately 42 per cent in Canadian visits to U.S. metropolitan areas – significantly higher than official border-crossing data, which showed a roughly 25 per cent decline”.

U.S. border communities that depend heavily on Canadian visitors have already felt the impact as Canadians reconsider trips south of the border, discouraged by stricter immigration enforcement and border policies, as well as frustrated by Donald Trump’s tariffs and comments about making Canada “the 51st state.”

However, the researchers said their findings also pointed to major declines in travel to urban centres in states including New York, New Hampshire and Vermont.

The data further showed reduced visits to major tourist hubs like Las Vegas and Walt Disney World, along with winter getaway destinations in Florida, long considered a popular retreat for Canadians escaping colder months.

READ MORE: Signs of a shift? StatCan data suggests Canadians may be warming up to U.S. travel

The researchers examined Canadian device activity in U.S. metropolitan areas from April 1, ,2024 through March 31, 2026.

To explain why their estimated 42 per cent decline exceeded border-crossing figures, they noted that cell phone tracking captures freight-related movement that official crossing data excludes, and may also reflect Canadians who had been living in the U.S. but later returned home.

“High-tech and financial centres like San Francisco and Houston appear to be experiencing reductions not only in tourists but also in business-related travel, reflecting changing travel preferences due to broader economic uncertainties on both sides of the border,” reads a blog entry accompanying the tool.

The researchers also emphasized that their data tracks “not only Canadians crossing the border, but also Canadians living temporarily in the U.S., suggesting that the decrease in activity may reflect return migration to Canada.

Statistics Canada figures show that return trips by Canadian residents from the U.S. declined 25 per cent in 2025. Travel to Canada by U.S. residents also fell, though more modestly, by 7.5 per cent.

However, StatCan data from April suggests that Canadians may be warming up to U.S. travel again.

Although air travel back from the United States dropped 8.1 per cent, car trips rose 5.8 per cent year-over-year, resulting in an overall 1.4 per cent increase in return trips by Canadians from the U.S.

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