Canada’s domestic tourism sector may gain $8.8 billion amid trade dispute: report

Canada’s tourism industry could see a significant dollar boost this year as more Canadians choose to vacation at home rather than travel to the United States.

According to a May 29 report from the Conference Board of Canada, the shift in travel plans could generate up to $8.8 billion in net economic benefits for the domestic tourism sector.

As first reported by the Canadian Press, the change appears to be driven by declining interest in U.S. travel.

In its April survey, the think tank found that only 27 per cent of Canadian respondents were considering a trip to the U.S. in the coming years — a steep drop from over 50 per cent who expressed similar intentions in November.

READ MORE: U.S. inbound travel continues to decline amid shifting sentiment

The latest numbers from Statistics Canada show the number of Canadians returning to the country from the United States by car fell 35.2 per cent year-over-year in April – the fourth consecutive month of year-over-year declines.

Although the Conference Board’s travel intentions survey indicates a rise in Canadians planning trips to international destinations beyond the U.S., an even greater number reported changing their vacation plans to stay within Canada.

The report also suggests that the declining value of the Canadian dollar—partly due to ongoing trade tensions—will further discourage travel to the United States.

According to new data from Statistics Canada, domestic travel climbed 7.4 per cent to reach two million passengers in April compared to last year, and was up 1.5 per cent from April 2019 levels.

Shifting sentiment & perceptions

Last month, data released by Tourism Economics revealed a projected 8.7 per cent decline in inbound U.S. tourism for 2025.

International sentiment toward the U.S. continues to be undermined by several factors, the organization said.

READ MORE: Canada-U.S. travel dropped again in April, but airports are busy: StatCan

Prominent among these are policy announcements under the Trump administration, including proposed "Liberation Day" tariffs targeting long-time trade partners.

A persistently strong dollar and widespread media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories have further contributed to a negative perception of the U.S. abroad.

"Shifting sentiment and perceptions of the U.S. are expected to continue to weigh heavily on travel demand," said Aran Ryan, director of industry studies at Tourism Economics, in a statement. "These figures emphasize the importance of monitoring trends and top markets, helping us forecast future impacts on the travel economy."

The downturn is particularly pronounced among travellers from Canada and Western Europe, the report found.

Air travel from Canada to the U.S. fell by 19.9 per cent over 2023 in April.

Western European travel to the U.S. saw a more modest but still significant 5.8 per cent decline.

In total, international visitor spending in the U.S. is projected to decrease by $8.5 billion this year—a 4.7 per cent reduction from 2024 levels, the organization said.

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