U.S. tariffs’ impact on airlines similar to hit from 9/11 aftermath, says IATA chief

The impact of U.S. tariffs on global aviation is likely to be similar in scope and duration to the aftermath of the September 11, 2001 attacks, but airlines will adapt and are "cautiously optimistic" about the outlook for the year, says the head of the International Air Transport Association (IATA)

Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, told The National on Tuesday (April 15) that airlines will respond with flexibility to tariff disruptions by shifting capacity from markets where demand has decreased into areas that continue to grow.

"Depending on what the uncertainty eventually is, it's probably somewhere near the impact we witnessed following the tragic events of 9/11, which was significant in terms of transatlantic traffic, but short-lived, and the market recovered within a few months," he said on the sidelines of the annual IATA World Cargo Symposium in Dubai.

"I don't see it having the same impact as the global financial crisis and certainly nowhere close to what we witnessed during the pandemic."

READ MORE: California launches campaign to encourage Canadians to visit in Trump dig: “Don’t let him ruin your beach plans”

In this year's first and second quarters, most transatlantic markets, with the exception of U.S.-Canada routes, are still performing well, with U.S.-Middle East travel demand rising eight per cent from the same period in 2024, according to IATA.

READ MORE: Canadian academics warned to avoid non-essential travel to the U.S. amid tensions

"You won't see airlines panicking because there's no reason to at the moment, because demand remains quite strong and that's true on the passenger side and cargo side," Walsh said. "They will monitor very closely what the trends are going forward."

But some airlines have pointed to "softening" transatlantic travel demand in the second half of this year, Walsh said. "We now have to respond to that with price stimulation rather than capacity reduction," he said.

Academics warned about U.S. travel 

The update comes as U.S. President Donald Trump, repeating rhetoric about making Canada the 51st state, imposes tariffs on Canadian imports and amid reports of travellers being detained by U.S. officials.

The political climate has led many Canadians to rethink their U.S. travel plans: the number of Canadians returning from the U.S. by vehicle was down almost 32 per cent in March compared to March 2024, according to Statistics Canada. 

Canadian return trips by air from the U.S. were also down 13.5 per cent last month compared to March 2024, StatCan says.

Airlines are currently offering 4.4 per cent fewer seats between Canada and the U.S. for April–June 2025 than they were back in January, reports Cirium, an aviation analytics company.

Canadian airlines, which operate the bulk of this capacity, have made steeper cuts — down 6.1 per cent on average.

According to Cirium's data, Air Canada’s seats are down more than nine per cent year-over-year, with WestJet reducing capacity by nearly five per cent.

United, on the other hand, is growing its presence in the market with an 8.5 per cent increase in seats. Porter Airlines, too, is directing 23 per cent of its available seat miles to U.S. destinations this April, Cirium says.

Academic staff at Canadian universities have meanwhile been warned to avoid non-essential travel to the United States due to the "political landscape" created by the Trump administration.

Updating its travel advice on Tuesday (April 15), the Canadian Association of University Teachers told its members to be cautious when crossing the U.S. border, saying that some people face heightened risks, the Canadian Press reports. 

The warning particularly applies to academics who are from countries that have tense diplomatic relations with the U.S., or who have themselves expressed negative views about Trump and his administration.

The notice also applies to people "whose research could be seen as being at odds with the position of the current U.S. administration," or who identify as transgender.

The Canadian government, notably, updated its advice to travellers heading south of the border earlier this month. In its latest notice, the government reminds Canadians that it cannot intervene if U.S. border agents deny travellers entry.

“Individual border agents often have significant discretion in making those determinations. U.S. authorities strictly enforce entry requirements.”

Ottawa’s advice also warns Canadians to “expect scrutiny at ports of entry, including of electronic devices.”

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