“Florida is feeling the impact”: New Cirium data sheds light on the decline of Canada-U.S. flights

New insights on the declining state of Canada-U.S. flight capacity has been shared by aviation analytics company Cirium.

In an update posted Thursday (April 3), Cirium, using its “Diio Snapshots” tool, reviewed airline schedule changes for April through June 2025.

The analysis compares data as filed on January 31, 2025, with updated schedules from late March.

Using its “Diio Advance Bookings” tool, Cirium then analyzed forward bookings — “for which there are some very important caveats,” wrote Mike Malik, chief marketing officer at Cirium in a blog post.

“Economic headwinds and political uncertainty have begun to reshape one of the world’s busiest cross-border air markets. Canadian carriers, in particular, are adjusting their schedules — and Florida is feeling the impact. And, the bookings appear to be taking a hit.”

Scheduled capacity down since January

Overall, carriers are offering 4.4 per cent fewer seats between Canada and the U.S. for April–June 2025 than they were back in January, the company says.

Canadian airlines, which operate the bulk of this capacity, have made steeper cuts — down 6.1 per cent on average.

For example: in April alone, airlines initially scheduled 13,555 flights. That number has now dropped to 13,100 — a reduction of roughly 400 flights, Malik points out.

Signs of this pullback first emerged in March and have since extended into the spring months.

April 2025 vs. April 2024

When comparing this April to the same month last year, scheduled capacity is generally lower, Cirium reports.

The Canadian dollar’s continued weakness and ongoing political tensions the U.S. “have likely played a role in these reductions,” the company notes.

Air Canada’s seats are down more than nine per cent year-over-year, with WestJet reducing capacity by nearly five per cent.

United, on the other hand, is growing its presence in the market with an 8.5 per cent increase in seats.

Porter Airlines, meanwhile, is directing 23 per cent of its available seat miles to U.S. destinations this April, Cirium shares.

Cirium assembled this comparison chart:

Florida sees sharper decline

Florida is one U.S. state that stands out. 

“Traditionally a strong seasonal market for Canadian carriers — particularly in fall, winter, and spring — it’s now seeing significant pullbacks,” Malik writes.

Compared to January schedules, seat capacity for April through June is down more than 20 per cent as of late March for destinations like Fort Lauderdale and Miami.

“The cuts are less severe in Orlando, but the overall trend points to caution among carriers,” Malik writes.

The summer booking curve

In regards to advance bookings data, Cirium says that its insights come from online travel agencies—not direct airline bookings.

“And since most bookings still happen directly with the airlines, this means we’re looking at a sample, not the full picture. Some carriers don’t distribute through OTAs or GDS at all,” Malik writes.

“So while the data can point us in the right direction, it’s more directional than definitive.”

Cirium performed an analysis of bookings made between January and March 2025 for travel in April, May, and June, and compared them to the same period in 2024.

The analysis focused on departures from Toronto, Montreal, Vancouver, and Calgary to key U.S. destinations—New York-area airports, Los Angeles, Chicago, Ft. Lauderdale, Miami, and Denver.

“It’s not the full picture, of course. But on third-party channels, bookings are down by about 20.5 per cent. Only the airlines have the full view of what the actual decline looks like,” Malik writes.

The numbers bring a fresh perspective to the discussion on U.S. tariffs and how they are impacting Canada-U.S. bookings.

Last month, U.K.-based OAG reported that passenger bookings on Canada–U.S. routes were down by 70 per cent compared to the same period last year – a claim that was later refuted by Canadian airlines.

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