IATA predicts 7 billion passengers for 2034

Passenger numbers are expected to reach 7 billion by 2034, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA)’s updated its passenger growth forecast.

The forecast predicts there will be a 3.8 per cent average annual growth in demand (2014 baseline year) - more than double the 3.3 billion who flew in 2014, and exactly twice as many as the 3.5 billion expected in 2015.

Previously, IATA forecast 7.4 billion passengers for 2034 based on a 4.1 per cent average annual growth rate, but the revised results reflect negative developments in the global economy expected to dampen demand for air transport – with especially slower economic growth projections for China. 

With that said. the five fastest-increasing markets in terms of additional passengers per year over the forecast period will be China (758 million new passengers for a total of 1.196 billion), the US.. (523 million new passengers for a total of 1.156 billion), India (275 million new passengers for a total of 378 million), Indonesia (132 million new passengers for a total of 219 million) and Brazil (104 million new passengers for a total of 202 million).

Seven of the ten fastest-growing markets in percentage terms will be in Africa, with the top ten being: Malawi, Rwanda, Sierra Leone, Central African Republic, Serbia, Tanzania, Uganda, Papua New Guinea, Ethiopia and Vietnam. Each of these markets is expected to grow by seven to eight per cent each year on average over the next 20 years, doubling in size each decade.

In terms of routes, Asian, South American and African destinations will see the fastest growth, reflecting economic and demographic growth in those markets. Indonesia-East Timor will be the fastest growing route, at 13.9 per cent, followed by India-Hong Kong (10.4 per cent), Within Honduras (10.3 per cent), Within Pakistan (9.9 per cent) and UAE-Ethiopia (9.5 per cent)