Cirium: Domestic flights see price increase, Canada-Europe flying up almost 7%

Aviation analytics company Cirium shared new insights on Friday (June 28) about the state of air travel in Canada.

Among the findings is an analysis of domestic flying – the company says the number of seats flown in the domestic market is up six per cent. (This, despite the bankruptcy of ultra-low-cost carrier Lynx Air in February).

As of June 2024, Porter Airlines has 33 jets in service, and will increase its Canadian domestic flying by 63 per cent (measured on seats flown) this July compared to last. WestJet will also increase their July flying by eight per cent compared to last July, Cirium says.

In contrast, ultra-low-cost carrier Flair will fly 7.5 per cent fewer seats this July 2024, compared to last July.

Economy airfare increases

Cirium’s FM Traffic watch also provides an estimate of airfares. While the company doesn’t predict prices, it notes that economy airfare in Canada’s domestic market has increased.

Between March 2023 and March 2024, economy prices went from $167 to $195, marking a 17 per cent increase, Cirium says.

READ MORE: Canadian airlines & Toronto Pearson improve on-time performance

Airfare has risen in nominal terms, the company points out, but in real terms (compared to a basket of other goods, and adjusted for inflation), Canadian airfare will have increased by a smaller amount.

For example: the average U.S. domestic airfare by the 13 major U.S. airlines was $179.25 in 2023, an increase of 9 per cent since the 2019 average of $164.63.

Cirium analyzed changes in the U.S. Consumer Price Index from data provided by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, where the inflation rate between 2019 and 2023 was 19 per cent.

Accordingly, airfare has risen less than other consumables — 10 per cent lower in real terms, Cirium says.

The same is not the case with Transatlantic airfare from Canada to Europe, however.

The latest data available from March 2024 compared to March 2023 shows that fares are stable at around USD $384 — no increase year over year, which bodes well for Canadian travellers.

Flying from Canada to Europe up almost 7%

Transatlantic flying from Canada to Europe is also up by almost seven per cent this year, Cirium reports.

Air Canada, Transat and WestJet lead the charge in getting Canadians to European destinations, and vice-versa.

Air Canada will fly twice as many seats as Air Transat, increasing its seat count by 3.3 per cent this July compared to last, Cirium says.

Transatlantic travel is currently seeing high demand in North America thanks in part to big-budget events taking place in Europe, such as the Summer Olympics in Paris and the European leg of Taylor Swift’s “Eras” tour.

Transat is up 6.2 per cent on seats in July 2024 compared to July 2023, with WestJet increasing its seats flown by almost 20,000 seats in the month of July 2024 alone compared to July 2023, Cirium says.

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