Canadian airlines scale back U.S. service; dim outlook for cross-border rebound

Canadian airlines sharply scaled back service to the United States over the past year, redirecting capacity to other regions — most notably the Caribbean — and there are few indications that cross-border travel will recover anytime soon.

Data from aviation analytics firm Cirium shows that Canada–U.S. flight volumes dropped by more than 14 per cent year over year in the fourth quarter among Air Canada, WestJet, Porter Airlines, Air Transat and Flair Airlines.

Some of the steepest reductions were on routes to Florida, California and Nevada, with capacity to Las Vegas alone falling roughly one-third compared with the same period last year, the Canadian Press reports.

READ MORE: Canadian airlines reduce U.S. capacity by nearly 10% for Q1: report

At the same time, airlines expanded service to more distant destinations as travellers shifted their plans.

Flight volumes to the Caribbean and South America surged 36 per cent in the most recent quarter and are up 45 per cent in the current one.

Domestic routes, along with service to Europe and Asia, also increased from 2024 levels as carriers rapidly reconfigured their networks.

Dim outlook, but some optimism

As it has been well documented, international sentiment toward the U.S. has been undermined by several factors.

Prominent among these are policy announcements under the Trump administration, including proposed tariffs targeting long-time trade partners, including Canada.

The weak Canadian dollar and widespread media coverage of border security incidents and national travel advisories have further contributed to a negative image abroad

The latest data from Statistics Canada shows an ongoing decline in cross-border movement between Canada and the U.S.

From an aviation perspective, there is little evidence that travel patterns are returning to normal.

READ MORE: Canadians travelling to U.S. will be photographed, DNA screening takes effect

Airline schedules indicate that Canadian carriers have cut flight volumes by 15 per cent in the first quarter of this year compared with 2025, a period when demand had already begun to soften as travellers grew wary of visiting a country whose leader openly floated “51st state” rhetoric about Canada.

Flight volumes to Arizona in the first quarter are set to decline by more than 20 per cent from a year earlier, while service to Florida is projected to drop by nearly 19 per cent, Cirium data shows.

But there are signs of optimism. Air Canada, for one, appears to be betting on a U.S. recovery, announcing three new U.S. destinations for this summer — Columbus, Cleveland and San Antonio.

The airline is supported by the fact that it carries passengers from other parts of the world that are travelling to the U.S. via Canada.

READ MORE: Air Canada’s Galardo confident on U.S. expansion at Billy Bishop

Additionally, the U.S.-bound business market isn’t experiencing the same dip as leisure, according to Mark Galardo, Air Canada’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer and president, cargo, speaking at downtown Toronto’s Billy Bishop airport (YTZ) last October.

YTZ is where Air Canada will soon launch new routes to key financial markets in the U.S., including New York’s LaGuardia (4x daily, March 29) Washington Dulles International (1x daily, June 1), Chicago O’Hare (2x daily, June 1) and Boston Logan International (3x daily, July 1).

Canadians still embracing travel

And make no mistake: Canadians have continued to embrace air travel.

According to Statistics Canada, Canadian return trips from overseas last October increased 9.1 per cent year-over-year, with a seasonally adjusted rise of 2.3 per cent.

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Air travel accounted for 997,500 of those trips, marking a 9.6 per cent increase compared to 2024.

Air Canada has rolled out more than a dozen new routes and added several destinations in the Caribbean and South America in recent months, including Rio de Janeiro, Guatemala City and Cartagena, Colombia.

Demand for sun-soaked destinations has also surged. WestJet boosted flights to Punta Cana in the Dominican Republic to 1,018 last quarter, up from just 320 a year earlier, Cirium reports. 

Overall, Canadian flight volumes to Cancun rose 35 per cent, while service to Central America climbed by close to one-third.

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