Boeing: Global air travel to double by 2045, requiring nearly 44,000 new aircraft

Despite ongoing geopolitical tensions and short-term disruptions, Boeing says the long-term outlook for global aviation remains strong, with passenger demand expected to double over the next two decades.

In its 2026 Commercial Market Outlook (CMO), released ahead of the Farnborough International Airshow, Boeing forecasts that airlines and cargo operators will require 43,625 new commercial aircraft by 2045 to meet growing demand and replace older, less efficient jets.

The aerospace manufacturer projects the global commercial fleet will expand by nearly 80 per cent, growing to more than 50,000 aircraft over the next 20 years.

About half of all new deliveries are expected to replace previous-generation aircraft, helping airlines improve fuel efficiency and support sustainability goals.

"Airlines are adapting quickly to manage near-term industry constraints while demand for air travel remains resilient," said Brad McMullen, Boeing senior vice president of commercial sales and marketing, in a press release.

"That demand is driving the need to grow and modernize the global fleet, underscoring the importance of new, fuel-efficient airplanes that will play an increasingly vital role in connecting people and economies around the world."

Middle East conflict shifts travel patterns

Boeing said recent geopolitical tensions, including the ongoing crisis in the Middle East, have altered travel patterns but have not dampened overall demand.

Instead of cancelling trips, passengers are changing destinations and flight routings, the company said.

Point-to-point and short-haul leisure travel continue to lead growth, while long-haul markets in some regions — including the Middle East — have experienced the greatest short-term disruption.

Looking further ahead, Boeing expects global passenger traffic to grow by about 4 per cent annually between 2026 and 2045, driven by expanding tourism, international trade and increasingly dispersed family and social networks.

Premium & low-cost travel expanding

The forecast suggests airlines are continuing to diversify their offerings to meet evolving traveller preferences.

Premium travel is expected to expand, particularly in North America and Northeast Asia, fuelled by rising incomes and demand for enhanced travel experiences.

At the same time, low-cost carriers are projected to see stronger fleet growth than traditional network airlines, particularly in emerging markets such as Latin America, Southeast Asia and Eastern Europe, where affordability continues to drive demand.

Since 2015, airlines have added nearly 5,500 new airport pairs, increasing global route networks by almost 30 per cent and giving travellers more nonstop options.

Boeing also noted that improvements in aircraft efficiency have significantly reduced fleet requirements. Without today's newer aircraft, airlines would require roughly 9,000 additional airplanes to carry the same number of passengers.

Emerging markets drive deliveries

While mature aviation markets such as North America, Northeast Asia, Oceania and Eurasia will account for approximately 45 per cent of aircraft deliveries through 2045, Boeing expects the majority — about 55 per cent — to be destined for transitioning and emerging markets.

Those include China, the Middle East, Latin America, South and Southeast Asia, and Africa.

Low-cost carrier fleets are forecast to grow by nearly four per cent annually, compared with approximately three per cent for network airlines.

By 2045, Boeing expects fewer than 10 per cent of previous-generation aircraft to remain in service globally as airlines continue renewing their fleets.

Air cargo remains resilient

Boeing's outlook also points to continued strength in the air cargo sector.

Despite geopolitical disruptions, international freighter capacity has increased 5 per cent year-to-date in 2026, reflecting the flexibility of global cargo networks.

The company forecasts air cargo traffic will grow by 3.7 per cent annually through 2045, supported by growing cross-border e-commerce, demand for time-sensitive shipments and the need for resilient supply chains.

The industry is expected to require more than 2,900 production and converted freighters over the next two decades, Boeing said.

Nearly 44,000 aircraft needed

Boeing's forecast calls for the following aircraft deliveries between 2026 and 2045:

• Single-aisle aircraft: 33,545
• Widebody aircraft: 7,715
• Regional aircraft: 1,435
• Freighters: 930

Total: 43,625 new aircraft

Boeing has published its Commercial Market Outlook annually since 1961 and says the report remains one of the aviation industry's most comprehensive long-term forecasts.

Don't miss a single travel story: subscribe to PAX today!  Click here to follow PAX on Facebook.