Air travel growth stalls in July as Middle East, NA weigh on demand: IATA

Global air passenger demand was flat in July, as declines among carriers in the Middle East and North America put the brakes on growth during the peak summer travel season.

New data released by the International Air Transport Association (IATA) shows total passenger demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPKs), rose just 0.2 per cent in July compared with the same month in 2025.

When the Middle East is excluded, however, global demand increased by 1.2 per cent year over year.

Total airline capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASKs), grew 0.3 per cent, while the global passenger load factor edged down 0.1 percentage points to 85.2 per cent.

North American carriers, for one, saw a decrease in demand of 2.3 per cent year-on-year, IATA notes.

The key transatlantic corridor fell by 2.2 per cent, with notable declines in traffic from UK, France, and Spain.

International demand dips

International passenger demand slipped 0.1 per cent compared with July 2025, although the picture changes significantly when the Middle East is removed from the equation.

Excluding the region, international traffic increased by 1.5 per cent year over year.

International capacity, meanwhile, rose 0.3 per cent, while the load factor declined 0.3 percentage points to 85.2 per cent.

Domestic markets performed slightly better, with passenger demand increasing 0.6 per cent compared with July 2025.

Domestic capacity grew 0.2 per cent, while the load factor climbed 0.3 percentage points to 85.3 per cent.

Gulf traffic recovering

Despite the muted headline numbers, IATA characterized the peak Northern Hemisphere summer season as largely positive, pointing to the ongoing recovery of traffic through Gulf hubs.

“The peak Northern summer travel season is a mostly positive story for air travel. Overall growth of 0.2 per cent in July was achieved despite year-on-year collective declines by carriers in North America and the Middle East,” said Marie Owens Thomsen, IATA’s senior vice president sustainability, and chief economist, in a statement.

“Notably, traffic through the Gulf hubs continues its recovery trajectory. Although high fuel costs, economic uncertainty and geopolitical tensions continue, carriers are expressing confidence in demand for the last part of the year with an almost 3% expansion of seat capacity in September.”

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