Shifts, dips & opportunities: TRAVELSAVERS’ Jane Clementino unpacks trade war trends

As U.S. President Donald Trump’s tariff war on Canada rages on, new data shows that twice as many Canadians are now avoiding the United States than originally predicted, setting up a possible $4 billion economic loss this year.

As previously reported, Statistics Canada, on Monday (March 10), noted that the number of Canadians taking road trips into the U.S. in February dropped 23 per cent compared to February 2024.

Canadian air travel to the U.S., too, was down by 2.4 per cent over the same period – but if current trends continue, an "upcoming sharper decline” is expected, said Avery Campbell, director of advocacy and industry relations ACTA, sharing a prediction on his LinkedIn page.    

The U.S. Travel Association (USTA) warned last month that a mere 10 per cent reduction in Canadian inbound visitors could result in $2.1 billion in lost spending and 140,000 travel and tourism-related jobs lost.

Using the USTA’s metrics, a sustained decline of more than 20 per cent in Canadian visitors would equate to $4 billion in losses to the U.S. economy in 2025, Forbes recently pointed out.

The shift stems from President Trump issuing executive orders on Feb. 1 to levy 25 per cent tariffs on products entering the U.S. from Canada (and Mexico), combined with former Prime Minister Justin Trudeau urging Canadians to reconsider visiting the U.S. and travel domestically instead.

Canadians represent the largest cohort of foreign inbound tourists to the U.S., spending $20.5 billion in 2024—the biggest economic impact of any other country—the U.S. National Travel and Tourism Office says.

Consumer confidence dips

What impact is this having on Canada’s travel market?  

Jane Clementino, senior vice-president and general manager at TRAVELSAVERS Canada, says the U.S. tariffs, combined with the weak Canadian dollar, has led to “uncertainty.”

“Consumer confidence is not where it needs to be,” Clementino tells PAX, “and we are seeing this reflected in shifting booking trends at TRAVELSAVERS Canada.”

While it’s too early for some numbers, Clementino says TRAVELSAVERS Canada, like many, is experiencing more cancellations for U.S. trips, as well as a redirection of travel plans away from U.S. destinations.

“Recent concerns are being driven by foreign exchange rates, inflation, and job security, and the ripple effect on disposable income is becoming a key factor in travel decisions,” Clementino says. “Many travellers are opting for shorter, more budget-conscious trips, prioritizing destinations where their dollar stretches further.”

At the same time, she expects that airlines will adjust to the shifts, adding capacity where needed, and potentially roll out competitive fares for domestic and alternative international routes.

“While the numbers may not be at their peak, they are noticeable,” Clementino says, noting that she anticipates to see a clearer impact next month as economic pressures continue to influence travel behaviours.

Shifts across the board

The impact is being felt across the board. Last week, Flight Centre Travel Group Canada said its leisure bookings to U.S. cities dropped 40 per cent in February from the same month in 2024, while one in five customers cancelled their trips to the U.S. over the past three months.

And, as Canadians rethink where they spend their dollars amid growing calls to “buy Canadian,” airlines have had to pivot as well.

For example: Porter Airlines, which flies to 16 U.S. destinations, has temporarily halted all marketing efforts promoting travel to the U.S. following feedback from Canadian consumers that advertising U.S.-bound trips, during the tariff conflict, would be tone-deaf.

“Canadian consumers have made it clear to us that they don't believe that we should be promoting travel to the United States,” Porter Airlines’ President Kevin Jackson told Skift recently.  

Porter has lowered its fares to keep bookings steady, said Jackson, who told the outlet that he anticipates Porter’s overall bookings may be lower than expected in 2025 due to rising tensions.

Air Canada is also monitoring changing market dynamics, reducing its capacity on select U.S. routes to Florida, Las Vegas, and Arizona this month, while WestJet is seeing a shift in bookings from the U.S. to sun destinations, such as Mexico and the Caribbean.

“[WestJet] remains focused on knowing where people want to go, and we will continue to fly where there is demand,” a spokesperson told PAX last week.

A key opportunity for advisors

Will the current political situation impact this year’s bottom line? Clementino thinks so.

“But rather than negatively impacting travel altogether, it will shift consumer preferences and demand,” she says. “Travellers may seek alternative destinations or different experiences based on economic and personal factors.”

This, Clementino says, presents a key opportunity for the trade.

“With clients looking for more guidance, advisors should position themselves as essential resources, helping travellers navigate changing regulations and discover attractive alternatives,” she says. “It’s also an ideal time for agencies to refine their customer acquisition and engagement strategies.”

Clementino says TRAVELSAVERS Canada provides its network with many tools and strategies to attract and grow business.

“We encourage our advisors to coach their clientele on how to leverage rewards points to fund travel during this current economic state,” she says. “By staying informed and proactive, advisors can turn these shifts into growth.”

Consider the alternatives

Then there’s the notion of pitching alternative destinations, beyond the U.S., where the Canadian dollar stretches further.

Clementino says clients are increasingly exploring destinations where they can get more bang for their Canadian buck – without compromising the experience.

“Destinations such as Mexico, Vietnam, Portugal, Turkey, Colombia, and Eastern Europe are a great alternative for Canadian travellers right now,” she says.

Travellers are asking questions

Canadians are also getting savvier as they figure out which travel companies are American, and which ones are not.

As Reese Morash of Halifax-based TravelBug Travel Group told PAX recently, Canadian consumers are “doing their research” as they direct their spending away from the U.S.

He said his agency, for example, is shifting clients to Viking “as they have no American affiliation.”

On whether Canadians are aggressively moving away from U.S. suppliers, Clementino says it’s too early for concrete booking data, which typically takes six to eight weeks to reflect trends.

However, she is seeing a spike in inquiries about Canadian and European suppliers.

“Travellers are asking more questions than ever before, indicating heightened interest in alternatives to U.S.-based options,” she says. “This suggests a potential shift in demand, as consumers explore new destinations, tour operators, and cruise lines that align with their evolving travel preferences.”

And what about cruise? With so many ports of call being located in the U.S., are vacations at sea experiencing a decline?

Clementino says cruise “remains strong despite economic and political factors.”

“While the weak Canadian dollar and U.S. tariffs may influence spending decisions, travellers who have already paid for their cruises are unlikely to cancel, as they don’t want to lose their investment,” she says. “Instead, we’re seeing a shift in departure points, with some

Canadians opting for European-based cruises rather than traditional Miami departures.”

The long-term outlook for the cruise sector is “bright,” Clementino adds.

“Demand remains high, and travellers continue to prioritize cruise vacations for their value, convenience, and immersive experiences,” she says. “Rather than a sharp decline in sales, we’re seeing adjustments in consumer behavior through destination shifts or a focus on maximizing value for their dollar.”

Focus on solutions

For the latest on Canada-U.S. travel, the trade is invited to attend a special town hall, happening today (March 11), hosted by ACTA.

The event will provide updates on Canada-U.S. relations, and discuss how the association is supporting travel advisors and agencies across Canada. To register, click here.

Clementino’s advice to advisors is to consider seasonality and emerging trends and, once again, guide clients to destinations where their dollar stretches further.

“Travel advisors can navigate U.S. tariffs professionally by focusing on solutions rather than opinions,” she says. “It’s possible to be pro-Canada without being anti-America. The key is to offer alternatives without dwelling on the challenges. Market complexity creates opportunities and highlights the expertise and skills of our advisors.”

Rather than putting travel plans on hold, she says advisors in her network are repositioning clients to be “just as excited about new options as they were about their original plans.”

“The ability to adapt and redirect expectations is a core skill in our network,” she says, “and this is a prime opportunity for [advisors] to showcase it, and for us to celebrate their achievements.”

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