Hotel rates in Canada forecast to climb: Amex GBT study

American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) has released its annual Hotel Monitor 2026, which looks at hotel rate forecasts worldwide based on Amex GBT data and IMF economic projections.

Global hotel rates are expected to remain relatively stable through 2026, the study says, with geopolitical instability and uncertainty surrounding potential U.S. tariffs limiting demand and restricting sharp increases.

The annual forecast is based on Amex GBT data combined with inflation and GDP projections from the International Monetary Fund. It provides an outlook for key business travel destinations worldwide.

North America

The report highlights tariff uncertainty as a potential factor for hotel pricing in the region: “Uncertainty over U.S. tariffs could have a variable impact on hotel rates in North America in the year ahead. In the US, we expect price rises to be moderate, tempered by a projected downturn in inbound demand.”

Within this context, Canada stands out. “Canada could see larger price increases than its southern neighbours; even with a growing supply of hotel rooms, our modelling indicates that rates for Toronto could rise by as much as +5.8 per cent,” the report states.

That compares with increases of +4 per cent in New York, +3 per cent in Miami and Las Vegas, and +2 per cent in Mexico City.

In additional Canadian data provided by Amex GBT, Vancouver is forecast for an even steeper increase of +6.2 per cent, while Montreal is projected to rise by +1.8 per cent.

Global variations

Other regions are projected to see more moderate changes.

In Europe, London is forecast at +4.2 per cent and Paris at +2.4 per cent, while Madrid is projected at +4.8 per cent.

London’s pipeline of 80 hotel projects, adding nearly 15,000 rooms, is expected to temper stronger increases.

In Asia, Hong Kong is forecast to decline by –1.2 per cent, while Beijing is expected to rise +1.5 per cent.

India remains a growth leader, with Bengaluru, dubbed the Silicon Valley of India, projected at +6.4 per cent following strong performance in 2025.

In Latin America, Buenos Aires is forecast to increase by +5.6 per cent and Rio De Janeiro by +5 per cent. In the Middle East, Riyadh is projected at +2.3 per cent and Dubai at +2 per cent, with development pipelines keeping growth moderate.

Market outlook

“This year’s forecast reveals a nuanced global environment where geopolitical uncertainties are tempering hotel rate increases,” stated Dan Beauchamp, VP, consulting, Amex GBT. “These insights allow businesses to make more informed travel decisions in an increasingly complex landscape.”

High-end properties are expected to record the strongest increases.

“Luxury could buck the stability trend, as affluent leisure travellers continue to spend, pushing up rates for top-tier accommodation,” stated Sara Andell, director of consulting strategy at Amex GBT, in a letter introducing the report. “Corporates who put their travellers in luxury and upper-upscale hotels could be paying more for the privilege.”

Implications for buyers

For travel buyers and corporate planners, the forecast points to continued caution.

While most markets will see modest changes, high-demand cities and luxury categories are expected to remain under upward pressure, requiring close monitoring of local conditions and proactive negotiations.

You can view Hotel Monitor 2026 here.

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