Tourism slump deepens: U.S. loses $5.7 billion as Canadian visits fall

The U.S. tourism industry is taking a financial hit as Canadians continue to stay north of the border. 

According to a new U.S. Travel Association report, international tourism spending in the United States is projected to drop 3.2 per cent in 2025 — a decline valued at roughly $5.7 billion US compared to last year.

Canadians have long represented the single largest source of international visitors to the U.S., making up 28 per cent of the country’s 72.4 million international arrivals in 2024. 

But that dominance is eroding fast. 

October data from Statistics Canada shows air travel from Canada down 24 per cent and land crossings down 30 per cent from the same time a year earlier, marking ten straight months of decline.

The U.S. Travel Association points to Canada as a key driver of the downturn, linking it to cooling cross-border relations since President Donald Trump’s return to office in January. 

His administration’s trade disputes with Canada, including new tariffs and harsh rhetoric, have strained ties and dampened enthusiasm for U.S. travel.

Tensions recently escalated after Trump severed trade talks with Canada in response to an anti-tariff ad campaign from the Ontario government. 

He’s since threatened further tariffs, arguing they’re needed to correct what he calls an “imbalanced” trade relationship.

But economists warn that tourism losses are now feeding into America’s own travel trade deficit, as more U.S. residents vacation abroad than foreign tourists visit the country. 

The U.S. Travel Association expects that deficit to approach $70 billion US in 2025, erasing what was once a consistent surplus for the sector.

Canadian hesitancy remains high

A recent Angus Reid poll underscores the chilly sentiment: 70 per cent of the 1,607 Canadians surveyed in late October said they’re uncomfortable travelling to the U.S. this winter. 

Top concerns include wanting to support Canada amid political tensions, unease over America’s divisive political climate and worries about stricter border security linked to Trump’s renewed immigration policies.

One major deterrent is the new registration rule for long-stay visitors, introduced in April. Canadians spending more than 29 days in the U.S. must now register with the federal government, a process that includes photographing, fingerprinting and a $30 US fee for land travellers.

Border communities feel the pinch

Tourism operators in U.S. border states are already seeing the fallout. 

Regions such as Buffalo, Seattle and Upstate New York report significant slowdowns in Canadian spending. 

In response, local tourism boards have launched discount and incentive campaigns to win back visitors, hoping to offset mounting losses through targeted promotions.

The U.S. Travel Association remains cautiously optimistic that international travel will rebound in 2026, buoyed by events like the FIFA World Cup and the United States’ 250th anniversary celebrations. 

For now, Canadians remain reluctant to cross the border, and that hesitation is beginning to show up in U.S. balance sheets.

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