NOAA predicts below-normal Atlantic hurricane season

NOAA’s National Weather Service is predicting a below-normal Atlantic hurricane season in 2026, but officials are still urging early preparation.

The Atlantic hurricane season runs from June 1 to November 30.

NOAA’s outlook predicts a 55 per cent chance of a below-normal season, a 35 per cent chance of a near-normal season and a 10 per cent chance of an above-normal season.

The agency is forecasting eight to 14 named storms, with winds of 39 mph or higher. 

Of those, three to six are expected to become hurricanes, with winds of 74 mph or higher, including one to three major hurricanes.

NOAA has 70 per cent confidence in those ranges.

An average Atlantic season produces 14 named storms, including seven hurricanes and three major hurricanes.

El Niño expected

NOAA says competing factors are shaping this year’s forecast.

El Niño is expected to develop and intensify during the hurricane season, which can suppress Atlantic hurricane activity.

At the same time, ocean temperatures in the Atlantic are expected to be slightly warmer than normal and trade winds are likely to be weaker than average, which can support a more active season.

“Although El Niño’s impact in the Atlantic Basin can often suppress hurricane development, there is still uncertainty in how each season will unfold,” said NOAA’s national weather service director Ken Graham. 

“That is why it’s essential to review your hurricane preparedness plan now. It only takes one storm to make for a very bad season.”

NOAA says the outlook is for overall seasonal activity based on large-scale weather and climate patterns.

It does not predict where or when storms may make landfall.

“Preparing now for hurricane season — and not waiting for a storm to threaten — is essential for staying ahead of any storm,” added Graham.

NOAA also issued outlooks for the eastern and central Pacific basins, where activity is expected to be above normal. 

The eastern Pacific outlook calls for 15 to 22 named storms, nine to 14 hurricanes and five to nine major hurricanes, while the central Pacific outlook calls for five to 13 combined named storms and tropical depressions.

The 2026 Atlantic seasonal outlook will be updated in early August, ahead of the historical peak of the season, which typically runs from mid-September through October.

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