Car rental prices steady in 2026-27, but watch those extra fees: Amex GBT

American Express Global Business Travel (Amex GBT) is forecasting relatively stable car rental prices globally in 2026-27, with Canada and the United States expected to see only modest increases.

According to the company’s latest Ground Monitor, rental rates in both Canada and the U.S. are forecast to rise between 1.5 and two per cent, as restrained GDP growth and improved vehicle supply help keep prices in check.

Rising auto insurance costs, however, could put additional upward pressure on rates.

Amex GBT is also seeing “significant growth” in the number and value of city surcharges across North America, including airport fees and day-of-week charges.

Once limited to a handful of cities, these additional fees are becoming increasingly common and could add to the overall cost of renting a vehicle.

“Looking globally, we expect prices to be stable, with moderate increases in geographies where local conditions – including taxes and the availability of cars to rent – could push up prices,” said Sara Andell, director of consulting strategy, Amex GBT Consulting, in a release.

Prices around the world

Outside North America, Australia is expected to see some of the larger increases, with rental rates forecast to rise between three and 3.4 per cent.

In Latin America, healthy leisure and corporate demand is supporting growth in the car rental sector. Rates in Brazil and Chile are forecast to increase between two and four per cent.

Across Europe, the outlook is generally more stable.

The Netherlands stands out, with rental rates projected to climb between four and five per cent due to changes to motor vehicle taxes that are increasing the cost of owning vehicles for rental fleets.

France and Spain, meanwhile, are expected to remain essentially flat, with increases of no more than 0.5 per cent.

Germany is forecast to see increases of between one and two per cent, while rates in Scandinavia could rise between one and 2.5 per cent. In the United Kingdom, increases of between 0.6 and 1.3 per cent are expected.

Rent a car or use ride hail?

The Ground Monitor also looks at when travellers may be better off financially renting a vehicle versus using ride-hailing services.

Amex GBT modelled airport-to-city-centre return journeys in its top 10 U.S. car rental cities, taking local tolls and parking costs into account.

For a one-day rental, renting a car proved cheaper than ride hail in five of the 10 cities examined.

The calculation changed when the rental period was extended to two days, with ride hail emerging as the cheaper option in every city studied.

However, Amex GBT noted that taking multiple journeys – or travelling somewhere with free parking – can shift the equation back in favour of a rental vehicle.

Supply risks remain

While the broader outlook is stable, geopolitical disruption remains a potential risk to rental prices.

Disruptions could affect supplies of aluminum and helium used in vehicle and semiconductor production, while increasingly sophisticated technology in vehicles is also making cars more costly to repair.

On the other hand, improving vehicle availability is creating more flexibility for corporate travel programs.

As providers rebuild their inventories following supply chain disruptions, Amex GBT says companies face less risk in consolidating their car rental programs with one or two providers.

Doing so could also strengthen their negotiating position, allowing companies to seek better rates in exchange for committing greater volumes to fewer rental providers.

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