Canadians less likely to travel to U.S. with Trump in office: poll

With trade penalties, tighter border controls and political uncertainty hanging in the air, a snapshot of Canadian travel intentions – specifically, their willingness to travel to the United States – has been captured in a new poll from Narrative Research.

The survey, conducted in December from a pool of 1,231 Canadians, asked participates what impact Donald Trump’s election will have on personal travel to the U.S. within the next year.

Just under one half (45 per cent) expect to travel to the U.S. the same amount, while three in ten (29 per cent) anticipate travelling less and just one in ten (eight per cent) say that they will travel more, the study founds.

The expected net drop in travel is approximately 21 per cent.

There was no question in the survey about why people’s habits would change.

Residents of Atlantic Canada (37 per cent), notably, are more likely than those living in other parts of the country to travel to the U.S. less within the next year, the survey found.

Across age groups, those aged 55 and over are more likely than younger Canadians to travel less (37 per cent), compared to their respective counterparts.

Men (52 per cent) are more likely to travel the same amount, while women (33 per cent) are more likely to travel less, the survey found. 

Other factors 

It’s not just Donald Trump, who will be inaugurated as U.S. president on Monday (Jan. 20), that could deter Canadians from travelling stateside. 

Processing times at the border could increase this year with the tightened measures that have been promised.

The weakening Canadian dollar has also made travelling to the U.S. more expensive.

Speaking with CTV News, Lorn Sheehan, a professor of strategy at Dalhousie University, isn’t surprised by the poll’s results.

“When our Canadian dollar weakens, as we have seen it weaken over the last 12 months, that becomes more expensive for Canadians to travel and spend in the U.S.,” Sheehan told the outlet.

But the political climate matters. “This is probably the most polarizing that I think I’ve seen in terms of American presidents coming to power,” he said.

While some are thrilled about Trump’s upcoming term, others are concerned. The trade penalties Trump has been threatening could, for one, set Canada up for an economic bruising.

National economic conditions directly affect disposable income and consumer spending, so it’s something the travel industry will need to monitor.

Sheehan told CTV News that Canada's relationship with the United States needs to be prioritized.

“It’s an extremely important trade relationship that we have with the U.S.,” Sheehan told CTV. “It’s our biggest trade partner, and we cannot afford to have that relationship go sideways.”

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