Fall is the new summer: Air Canada forecasts record September, October

Air Canada is forecasting a record-breaking September and October as premium travellers increasingly trade the traditional summer rush for cooler temperatures and smaller crowds in the fall.

According to Reuters, the airline expects the two months to deliver its strongest revenue performance ever for that period, fuelled by demand from business-class and corporate travellers.

"We anticipate that September and October will probably be the strongest September and October from a revenue perspective that the company’s ever had," Air Canada's Executive Vice President and Chief Commercial Officer Mark Galardo told Reuters in an interview Thursday (Aug. 13).

The outlook reflects a broader shift in travel patterns that is reshaping what airlines once considered their shoulder seasons.

North American carriers have increasingly focused on premium passengers, corporate customers and loyalty program members, who are generally viewed as less likely to cut back when airfares climb.

At the same time, some high-end leisure travellers are choosing to skip the peak summer months altogether, particularly when visiting destinations in Europe and Japan.

Fall is the new summer

This trend was a recurring theme at Virtuoso Travel Week in Las Vegas last week.

What the luxury travel consortium once dubbed “coolcations” – the pursuit of destinations with milder temperatures – has grown into a broader reshaping of the traditional travel calendar, as travellers increasingly move their trips beyond peak summer months.

September is proving especially strong at Virtuoso, which says bookings, for that month, are up 55 per cent while sales surge 77 per cent.

READ MORE: On Location: Fallcations, “city-maxxing” & analog escapes - Virtuoso maps luxury travel’s next wave

November has also emerged as another standout month, with both bookings and sales up 70 per cent.

“One of the clearest signals we’re seeing [is] that shoulder season is now peak season,” said Misty Belles, vice president of global public relations at Virtuoso, at a press conference on August 10. 

As previously reported, Europe is at the heart of the shift as the traditional gap between August and September continues to narrow.

A premium story

At Air Canada, the trend is also playing out in the luxury segment.

"We’ve seen tremendous growth in demand for people travelling business class to go to Italy, Spain, France, the Mediterranean in general, Japan," Galardo told Reuters. "And typically, these customers avoid the summer peak."

The trend has also gained momentum as destinations contend with extreme summer temperatures.

As previously reported, large parts of Europe have faced record heat, drought and wildfires this summer, while Japan has recorded temperatures above 40 C.

Galardo says the move toward spring and fall travel among premium customers began two or three years ago but has accelerated, with the pattern now extending somewhat into November.

Other major North American airlines, including Delta Air Lines and United Airlines, have also reported stronger autumn demand, particularly for European travel.

Air Canada isn't seeing the same shift among more price-conscious passengers, however.

"That shift to the fall season is really a story of premium," Galardo told Reuters.

The changing calendar is also influencing where and when Air Canada deploys its aircraft.

The airline has already added service to European leisure destinations such as Sicily and Mallorca, with further expansion expected as new aircraft join its fleet next year.

Air Canada is also looking at how it schedules aircraft maintenance to better reflect the changing seasonality of demand.

That could include moving some maintenance work into the summer months, allowing more aircraft to be available in September as premium demand picks up, Reuters reports.

The upbeat fall outlook comes as the airline restores its 2026 adjusted core profit forecast at between C$2.9 billion and C$3.2 billion amid continued pressure from higher fuel costs.

Air Canada recently reported record operating revenue of $6.27 billion in Q2 of 2026, but higher expenses – including a sharp increase in fuel costs – pushed the airline to a $178 million net loss compared to a net income of $186 million during the same time last year.

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