Air passenger demand fell 2.2% in May, says IATA

Air passenger demand fell 2.2 per cent in May, according to the International Air Transport Association (IATA), releasing its latest data.

Total demand, measured in revenue passenger kilometres (RPK), was down 2.2 per cent compared to May 2025, the association said in a press release.

Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 0.7 per cent. Total capacity, measured in available seat kilometres (ASK), decreased 2.3 per cent year-on-year.

The load factor was 83.5 per cent (+0.1 ppt compared to May 2025), a record high for May.

International demand fell 1.6 per cent compared to May 2025. Excluding the Middle East, demand grew by 3.1 per cent.

Capacity was down 2.4 per cent year-on-year, and the load factor was 83.7 per cent (+0.7 ppt compared to May 2025).

Domestic demand contracted 3.1 per cent compared to May 2025. Capacity decreased 2.1 per cent year-on-year. The load factor was 83.0 per cent (-0.8 ppt compared to May 2025).

North American carriers, for one, increased demand 1.0 per cent year-on-year, IATA said.

Capacity for that same region increased 0.6 per cent year-on-year, and the load factor was 84.0 per cent (+0.4 ppt compared to May 2025)

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2 per cent year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centred on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4 per cent year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6 per cent decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s director general, in a statement.

Overall, May demand still appeared to be "largely resilient" in the face of high fuel prices and air fares, he said.

“While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing.”

“In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2.0 per cent margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs.”

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